NFL Week 1 2026 – Model Preview

Read this first. These are model projections, not guarantees. It’s the season opener, so the model is seeded from 2025 usage + 2026 rosters (via Efficiency+ (HFA, recency, regression), 2026 rosters) — the least reliable week of the year: rookies have no data and roles are unsettled. Use it as a starting point for start/sit calls, not gospel.

Top Fantasy Plays

projected half-PPR points · TD% = anytime

Top QB

  1. QBMatthew Stafford251 pass yd · 3.6 TD · 0.3 INT4%24.7
  2. QBDak Prescott289 pass yd · 2.2 TD · 0.5 INT · 11 rush yd14%21.8
  3. QBJaxson Dart174 pass yd · 1.7 TD · 0.3 INT · 34 rush yd56%21.7
  4. QBJosh Allen216 pass yd · 1.3 TD · 0.8 INT · 36 rush yd56%21.6
  5. QBBrock Purdy250 pass yd · 2.4 TD · 1.5 INT · 16 rush yd26%21.5
  6. QBJalen Hurts209 pass yd · 1.9 TD · 0.3 INT · 27 rush yd41%21.4
  7. QBTrevor Lawrence194 pass yd · 2.0 TD · 0.7 INT · 21 rush yd45%20.8
  8. QBJoe Burrow237 pass yd · 2.7 TD · 0.6 INT5%20.6

Top RB

  1. RBChristian McCaffrey16 car · 62 yd   6-58 rec64%21.1
  2. RBJonathan Taylor18 car · 85 yd   3-24 rec71%19.7
  3. RBJahmyr Gibbs15 car · 69 yd   4-34 rec68%19.5
  4. RBBijan Robinson16 car · 83 yd   5-44 rec45%18.7
  5. RBCam Skattebo14 car · 61 yd   3-28 rec69%17.6
  6. RBKyren Williams17 car · 84 yd   2-14 rec67%17.5
  7. RBDerrick Henry19 car · 89 yd   1-6 rec70%17.2
  8. RBDe'Von Achane16 car · 80 yd   4-25 rec52%17.0

Top WR

  1. WRPuka Nacua8-103 on 10 tgt57%19.8
  2. WRJaxon Smith-Njigba7-93 on 9 tgt45%16.3
  3. WRGeorge Pickens6-90 on 8 tgt47%15.8
  4. WRJa'Marr Chase8-85 on 11 tgt44%15.8
  5. WRAmon-Ra St. Brown7-78 on 10 tgt49%15.2
  6. WRDavante Adams4-56 on 8 tgt70%15.0
  7. WRChris Olave6-78 on 10 tgt42%14.2
  8. WRDrake London6-80 on 10 tgt42%14.2

Top TE

  1. TETrey McBride8-82 on 11 tgt42%15.5
  2. TEBrock Bowers6-64 on 7 tgt38%12.3
  3. TEGeorge Kittle6-49 on 7 tgt49%11.7
  4. TEDallas Goedert4-44 on 5 tgt50%10.4
  5. TEKyle Pitts5-59 on 7 tgt25%10.3
  6. TETucker Kraft4-52 on 6 tgt39%10.2
  7. TEJake Ferguson5-37 on 6 tgt43%9.7
  8. TETyler Warren5-48 on 7 tgt27%9.2

TD Magnets

highest anytime-touchdown probability
  1. Jonathan TaylorRBIND v BAL71%
  2. Derrick HenryRBBAL v IND70%
  3. Davante AdamsWRLA v SF70%
  4. Cam SkatteboRBNYG v DAL69%
  5. Jahmyr GibbsRBDET v NO68%
  6. Kyren WilliamsRBLA v SF67%
  7. Christian McCaffreyRBSF v LA64%
  8. Javonte WilliamsRBDAL v NYG58%

The Slate

tap any game to expand the full report
DAL@NYGNYG −6.1O/U 58.9DAL 26–32 NYG
DAL 32%NYG 68%
DALCowboys
  1. QBDak Prescott289 pass yd · 2.2 TD · 0.5 INT · 11 rush yd14%21.8
  2. WRGeorge Pickens6-90 on 8 tgt47%15.8
  3. RBJavonte Williams14 car · 81 yd   2-11 rec58%15.7
  4. WRCeeDee Lamb6-90 on 10 tgt27%14.0
  5. TEJake Ferguson5-37 on 6 tgt43%9.7
NYGGiants
  1. QBJaxson Dart174 pass yd · 1.7 TD · 0.3 INT · 34 rush yd56%21.7
  2. RBCam Skattebo14 car · 61 yd   3-28 rec69%17.6
  3. WRMalik Nabers5-77 on 8 tgt47%13.9
  4. RBTyrone Tracy Jr.13 car · 59 yd   2-22 rec34%11.7
  5. TETheo Johnson3-34 on 5 tgt35%7.6
SF@LALA −7.5O/U 55.3SF 24–31 LA
SF 29%LA 71%
🏟 dome
SF49ers
  1. QBBrock Purdy250 pass yd · 2.4 TD · 1.5 INT · 16 rush yd26%21.5
  2. RBChristian McCaffrey16 car · 62 yd   6-58 rec64%21.1
  3. TEGeorge Kittle6-49 on 7 tgt49%11.7
  4. WRMike Evans4-53 on 8 tgt35%10.0
  5. WRRicky Pearsall4-60 on 6 tgt8%8.7
LARams
  1. QBMatthew Stafford251 pass yd · 3.6 TD · 0.3 INT4%24.7
  2. WRPuka Nacua8-103 on 10 tgt57%19.8
  3. RBKyren Williams17 car · 84 yd   2-14 rec67%17.5
  4. WRDavante Adams4-56 on 8 tgt70%15.0
  5. RBBlake Corum10 car · 50 yd   1-3 rec42%8.8
BAL@INDBAL −2.9O/U 52.9BAL 28–25 IND
BAL 58%IND 42%
BALRavens
  1. QBLamar Jackson189 pass yd · 1.6 TD · 0.5 INT · 26 rush yd19%17.1
  2. RBDerrick Henry19 car · 89 yd   1-6 rec70%17.2
  3. WRZay Flowers5-68 on 7 tgt33%11.9
  4. TEMark Andrews3-28 on 4 tgt32%6.8
  5. RBJustice Hill2 car · 8 yd   2-13 rec24%4.7
INDColts
  1. QBDaniel Jones245 pass yd · 1.3 TD · 0.5 INT · 13 rush yd31%18.2
  2. RBJonathan Taylor18 car · 85 yd   3-24 rec71%19.7
  3. WRAlec Pierce3-65 on 6 tgt35%10.7
  4. TETyler Warren5-48 on 7 tgt27%9.2
  5. WRJosh Downs4-38 on 6 tgt25%7.4
TB@CINCIN −2.9O/U 50.6TB 24–27 CIN
TB 42%CIN 58%
TBBuccaneers
  1. QBBaker Mayfield252 pass yd · 2.0 TD · 0.8 INT · 21 rush yd8%19.9
  2. RBBucky Irving17 car · 69 yd   3-32 rec34%14.1
  3. RBKenny Gainwell6 car · 36 yd   4-35 rec38%12.2
  4. WREmeka Egbuka4-60 on 8 tgt32%10.4
  5. WRChris Godwin Jr.4-44 on 6 tgt23%7.8
CINBengals
  1. QBJoe Burrow237 pass yd · 2.7 TD · 0.6 INT5%20.6
  2. RBChase Brown14 car · 62 yd   4-31 rec54%16.0
  3. WRJa'Marr Chase8-85 on 11 tgt44%15.8
  4. WRTee Higgins4-54 on 6 tgt54%11.9
  5. RBSamaje Perine6 car · 26 yd   1-8 rec23%5.6
BUF@HOUHOU −2.6O/U 48.2BUF 23–25 HOU
BUF 42%HOU 58%
BUFBills
  1. QBJosh Allen216 pass yd · 1.3 TD · 0.8 INT · 36 rush yd56%21.6
  2. RBJames Cook18 car · 78 yd   2-17 rec55%15.2
  3. WRKhalil Shakir4-44 on 6 tgt24%8.0
  4. WRDJ Moore3-39 on 5 tgt32%7.9
  5. TEDalton Kincaid3-38 on 4 tgt32%7.8
HOUTexans
  1. QBC.J. Stroud187 pass yd · 1.3 TD · 0.7 INT · 15 rush yd10%14.3
  2. WRNico Collins4-66 on 8 tgt36%11.7
  3. RBDavid Montgomery10 car · 50 yd   1-9 rec42%9.8
  4. RBWoody Marks13 car · 53 yd   2-10 rec29%9.2
  5. RBJawhar Jordan11 car · 57 yd   1-8 rec16%8.2
NYJ@TENTEN −6.4O/U 47.8NYJ 21–27 TEN
NYJ 32%TEN 68%
NYJJets
  1. QBBrady Cook197 pass yd · 0.7 TD · 1.1 INT · 11 rush yd6%10.9
  2. WRGarrett Wilson6-75 on 9 tgt41%13.7
  3. RBBreece Hall14 car · 60 yd   2-24 rec25%11.3
  4. TEMason Taylor4-34 on 5 tgt11%6.1
  5. WRAdonai Mitchell3-38 on 5 tgt13%5.9
TENTitans
  1. QBCam Ward184 pass yd · 1.2 TD · 0.4 INT13%13.6
  2. RBTony Pollard16 car · 70 yd   2-14 rec35%11.9
  3. WRWan'Dale Robinson5-62 on 8 tgt26%10.9
  4. RBTyjae Spears6 car · 24 yd   3-23 rec22%7.8
  5. RBMichael Carter8 car · 29 yd   2-23 rec16%7.4
NO@DETDET −3.6O/U 45.8NO 21–25 DET
NO 39%DET 61%
🏟 dome
NOSaints
  1. QBTyler Shough232 pass yd · 1.1 TD · 0.6 INT · 17 rush yd21%16.2
  2. WRChris Olave6-78 on 10 tgt42%14.2
  3. RBTravis Etienne14 car · 61 yd   2-16 rec48%12.8
  4. TEJuwan Johnson4-52 on 6 tgt18%8.5
  5. RBAlvin Kamara11 car · 41 yd   3-17 rec14%8.2
DETLions
  1. QBJared Goff247 pass yd · 2.3 TD · 0.4 INT3%19.1
  2. RBJahmyr Gibbs15 car · 69 yd   4-34 rec68%19.5
  3. WRAmon-Ra St. Brown7-78 on 10 tgt49%15.2
  4. WRJameson Williams4-60 on 6 tgt35%10.5
  5. TESam LaPorta4-47 on 5 tgt29%8.8
CHI@CARCHI −3.2O/U 45.3CHI 24–21 CAR
CHI 59%CAR 41%
CHIBears
  1. QBCaleb Williams230 pass yd · 1.4 TD · 0.5 INT · 22 rush yd18%17.7
  2. RBD'Andre Swift15 car · 74 yd   2-16 rec50%14.3
  3. WRRome Odunze4-54 on 7 tgt39%10.2
  4. TEColston Loveland4-50 on 5 tgt32%9.2
  5. RBKyle Monangai10 car · 51 yd   1-9 rec30%8.6
CARPanthers
  1. QBBryce Young214 pass yd · 1.7 TD · 0.9 INT · 14 rush yd12%16.5
  2. WRTetairoa McMillan4-72 on 7 tgt32%11.7
  3. RBChuba Hubbard8 car · 37 yd   2-14 rec22%7.6
  4. WRJalen Coker3-42 on 4 tgt22%7.1
  5. WRXavier Legette3-31 on 4 tgt18%5.6
ATL@PITPIT −1.8O/U 44.0ATL 21–23 PIT
ATL 45%PIT 55%
ATLFalcons
  1. QBMichael Penix Jr.232 pass yd · 1.1 TD · 0.4 INT10%14.6
  2. RBBijan Robinson16 car · 83 yd   5-44 rec45%18.7
  3. WRDrake London6-80 on 10 tgt42%14.2
  4. TEKyle Pitts5-59 on 7 tgt25%10.3
  5. WROlamide Zaccheaus3-26 on 5 tgt15%5.1
PITSteelers
  1. QBAaron Rodgers208 pass yd · 1.6 TD · 0.6 INT6%15.2
  2. RBJaylen Warren14 car · 64 yd   2-18 rec40%12.4
  3. RBRico Dowdle14 car · 67 yd   2-16 rec36%12.1
  4. WRDK Metcalf4-55 on 6 tgt33%9.9
  5. WRMichael Pittman4-46 on 6 tgt33%9.2
ARI@LACLAC −8.8O/U 43.6ARI 17–26 LAC
ARI 26%LAC 74%
🏟 dome
ARICardinals
  1. QBJacoby Brissett249 pass yd · 1.1 TD · 0.8 INT · 12 rush yd7%15.2
  2. TETrey McBride8-82 on 11 tgt42%15.5
  3. WRMichael Wilson5-59 on 8 tgt29%10.3
  4. WRMarvin Harrison Jr.4-50 on 7 tgt24%8.4
  5. RBTrey Benson6 car · 31 yd   3-18 rec11%7.2
LACChargers
  1. QBJustin Herbert214 pass yd · 2.0 TD · 0.6 INT · 30 rush yd16%19.9
  2. RBOmarion Hampton16 car · 75 yd   3-21 rec51%15.4
  3. WRQuentin Johnston4-50 on 6 tgt46%10.6
  4. RBKimani Vidal14 car · 62 yd   1-10 rec33%10.2
  5. WRLadd McConkey4-45 on 6 tgt32%8.7
CLE@JAXJAX −13.3O/U 42.7CLE 15–28 JAX
CLE 16%JAX 84%
CLEBrowns
  1. QBShedeur Sanders179 pass yd · 0.6 TD · 1.7 INT · 17 rush yd8%10.2
  2. TEHarold Fannin Jr.5-47 on 7 tgt26%9.1
  3. RBQuinshon Judkins14 car · 45 yd   2-13 rec27%8.8
  4. WRJerry Jeudy3-34 on 7 tgt10%5.7
  5. RBDylan Sampson4 car · 10 yd   2-18 rec11%4.7
JAXJaguars
  1. QBTrevor Lawrence194 pass yd · 2.0 TD · 0.7 INT · 21 rush yd45%20.8
  2. RBChris Rodriguez Jr.11 car · 47 yd   0-2 rec49%9.0
  3. WRParker Washington3-44 on 5 tgt30%8.3
  4. WRJakobi Meyers4-44 on 6 tgt22%8.0
  5. TEBrenton Strange3-39 on 4 tgt25%7.3
WAS@PHIPHI −8.2O/U 42.2WAS 17–25 PHI
WAS 27%PHI 73%
WASCommanders
  1. QBJayden Daniels182 pass yd · 0.8 TD · 0.5 INT · 39 rush yd21%15.1
  2. WRTerry McLaurin4-56 on 6 tgt22%8.9
  3. RBRachaad White7 car · 28 yd   2-18 rec16%6.8
  4. RBJacory Croskey-Merritt9 car · 40 yd   1-6 rec27%6.7
  5. TEChig Okonkwo3-29 on 5 tgt11%5.2
PHIEagles
  1. QBJalen Hurts209 pass yd · 1.9 TD · 0.3 INT · 27 rush yd41%21.4
  2. RBSaquon Barkley20 car · 86 yd   2-19 rec50%15.6
  3. TEDallas Goedert4-44 on 5 tgt50%10.4
  4. WRDeVonta Smith4-60 on 6 tgt22%9.6
  5. WRMarquise Brown3-37 on 4 tgt26%7.0
NE@SEASEA −6.2O/U 41.9NE 18–24 SEA
NE 32%SEA 68%
NEPatriots
  1. QBDrake Maye236 pass yd · 1.2 TD · 0.6 INT · 26 rush yd18%17.5
  2. WRA.J. Brown5-57 on 9 tgt32%10.5
  3. RBRhamondre Stevenson8 car · 32 yd   2-20 rec36%9.0
  4. TEHunter Henry4-48 on 5 tgt28%8.7
  5. RBTreVeyon Henderson10 car · 39 yd   2-12 rec34%8.7
SEASeahawks
  1. QBSam Darnold208 pass yd · 1.5 TD · 0.7 INT3%14.5
  2. WRJaxon Smith-Njigba7-93 on 9 tgt45%16.3
  3. RBZach Charbonnet13 car · 46 yd   1-7 rec57%11.0
  4. TEAJ Barner3-28 on 4 tgt31%6.6
  5. WRRashid Shaheed3-35 on 5 tgt13%6.2
MIA@LVMIA −2.8O/U 40.6MIA 22–19 LV
MIA 58%LV 42%
🏟 dome
MIADolphins
  1. QBQuinn Ewers147 pass yd · 0.7 TD · 0.5 INT6%9.3
  2. RBDe'Von Achane16 car · 80 yd   4-25 rec52%17.0
  3. RBJaylen Wright8 car · 31 yd   1-4 rec22%5.4
  4. TEGreg Dulcich3-30 on 4 tgt13%5.3
  5. WRMalik Washington3-21 on 4 tgt19%5.3
LVRaiders
  1. QBKirk Cousins195 pass yd · 1.1 TD · 0.4 INT7%12.4
  2. RBAshton Jeanty15 car · 62 yd   4-25 rec38%13.3
  3. TEBrock Bowers6-64 on 7 tgt38%12.3
  4. WRTre Tucker4-44 on 6 tgt23%8.2
  5. TEMichael Mayer3-29 on 4 tgt9%5.0
GB@MINMIN −5.0O/U 38.2GB 17–22 MIN
GB 35%MIN 65%
🏟 dome
GBPackers
  1. QBJordan Love229 pass yd · 0.9 TD · 0.4 INT · 13 rush yd3%14.1
  2. RBJosh Jacobs14 car · 52 yd   2-16 rec47%11.8
  3. WRChristian Watson4-62 on 6 tgt34%10.5
  4. TETucker Kraft4-52 on 6 tgt39%10.2
  5. WRJayden Reed4-42 on 5 tgt16%7.2
MINVikings
  1. QBCarson Wentz208 pass yd · 1.1 TD · 0.7 INT · 10 rush yd6%13.3
  2. WRJustin Jefferson5-60 on 8 tgt13%9.4
  3. WRJauan Jennings4-42 on 6 tgt40%9.1
  4. RBAaron Jones12 car · 47 yd   2-14 rec25%9.0
  5. RBJordan Mason11 car · 48 yd   1-4 rec33%8.0
DEN@KCDEN −1.9O/U 36.5DEN 19–17 KC
DEN 56%KC 44%
DENBroncos
  1. QBBo Nix222 pass yd · 1.0 TD · 0.6 INT · 21 rush yd22%15.8
  2. RBJ.K. Dobbins16 car · 72 yd   1-6 rec32%10.7
  3. RBRJ Harvey9 car · 31 yd   3-20 rec43%9.9
  4. WRCourtland Sutton4-53 on 7 tgt29%9.5
  5. WRJaylen Waddle4-50 on 6 tgt27%8.9
KCChiefs
  1. QBPatrick Mahomes227 pass yd · 1.0 TD · 0.6 INT · 28 rush yd22%16.7
  2. WRRashee Rice6-61 on 10 tgt40%12.5
  3. RBKenneth Walker III13 car · 52 yd   2-14 rec22%8.8
  4. TETravis Kelce4-49 on 6 tgt21%8.5
  5. WRXavier Worthy3-33 on 5 tgt9%5.7