NFL Week 1 2025 – Model Preview

Read this first. These are model projections, not guarantees. It’s the season opener, so the model is seeded from 2025 usage + 2026 rosters (via Efficiency+ (HFA, recency, regression), 2025 rosters) — the least reliable week of the year: rookies have no data and roles are unsettled. Use it as a starting point for start/sit calls, not gospel.

Top Fantasy Plays

projected half-PPR points · TD% = anytime

Top QB

  1. QBLamar Jackson238 pass yd · 3.0 TD · 0.3 INT · 52 rush yd26%28.4
  2. QBJalen Hurts187 pass yd · 1.8 TD · 0.4 INT · 42 rush yd71%25.9
  3. QBBaker Mayfield233 pass yd · 3.4 TD · 0.8 INT · 21 rush yd20%25.5
  4. QBJoe Burrow271 pass yd · 3.2 TD · 0.4 INT · 12 rush yd14%25.2
  5. QBJosh Allen236 pass yd · 1.9 TD · 0.3 INT · 33 rush yd56%24.8
  6. QBJayden Daniels199 pass yd · 1.8 TD · 0.4 INT · 51 rush yd38%22.6
  7. QBBo Nix187 pass yd · 2.3 TD · 0.7 INT · 25 rush yd26%20.3
  8. QBJared Goff261 pass yd · 2.4 TD · 0.9 INT4%19.8

Top RB

  1. RBSaquon Barkley25 car · 143 yd   2-18 rec76%25.8
  2. RBDerrick Henry20 car · 116 yd   1-10 rec72%20.7
  3. RBJahmyr Gibbs15 car · 78 yd   3-27 rec76%20.5
  4. RBJosh Jacobs17 car · 73 yd   2-23 rec66%17.3
  5. RBBijan Robinson16 car · 74 yd   4-29 rec55%17.0
  6. RBJonathan Taylor21 car · 98 yd   1-11 rec56%16.5
  7. RBAlvin Kamara15 car · 67 yd   6-45 rec36%16.5
  8. RBJ.K. Dobbins17 car · 79 yd   2-12 rec64%16.3

Top WR

  1. WRJa'Marr Chase6-102 on 9 tgt67%20.2
  2. WRChris Godwin Jr.7-74 on 8 tgt56%15.8
  3. WRTee Higgins5-78 on 8 tgt60%15.8
  4. WRJustin Jefferson6-96 on 9 tgt42%15.8
  5. WRAmon-Ra St. Brown7-70 on 8 tgt57%15.6
  6. WRMalik Nabers8-85 on 12 tgt38%15.3
  7. WRMike Evans5-65 on 7 tgt59%14.6
  8. WRNico Collins6-87 on 8 tgt38%14.3

Top TE

  1. TEGeorge Kittle5-73 on 7 tgt38%12.8
  2. TETrey McBride6-78 on 9 tgt14%12.1
  3. TEBrock Bowers7-68 on 9 tgt25%11.9
  4. TEDavid Njoku7-56 on 10 tgt32%11.4
  5. TESam LaPorta4-48 on 5 tgt40%9.8
  6. TEJonnu Smith5-45 on 6 tgt36%9.7
  7. TETaysom Hill3-24 on 4 tgt36%9.5
  8. TEMark Andrews3-32 on 4 tgt50%9.1

TD Magnets

highest anytime-touchdown probability
  1. Saquon BarkleyRBPHI v DAL76%
  2. Jahmyr GibbsRBDET v GB76%
  3. Derrick HenryRBBAL v BUF72%
  4. James CookRBBUF v BAL71%
  5. Ja'Marr ChaseWRCIN v CLE67%
  6. Josh JacobsRBGB v DET66%
  7. David MontgomeryRBDET v GB66%
  8. J.K. DobbinsRBDEN v TEN64%

The Slate

tap any game to expand the full report
DET@GBDET −1.5O/U 55.2DET 28–27 GB
DET 54%GB 46%
DETLions
  1. QBJared Goff261 pass yd · 2.4 TD · 0.9 INT4%19.8
  2. RBJahmyr Gibbs15 car · 78 yd   3-27 rec76%20.5
  3. WRAmon-Ra St. Brown7-70 on 8 tgt57%15.6
  4. RBDavid Montgomery14 car · 53 yd   2-21 rec66%15.0
  5. WRJameson Williams4-62 on 6 tgt45%12.1
GBPackers
  1. QBJordan Love232 pass yd · 1.6 TD · 0.9 INT8%15.9
  2. RBJosh Jacobs17 car · 73 yd   2-23 rec66%17.3
  3. WRJayden Reed3-47 on 4 tgt37%9.7
  4. WRRomeo Doubs3-45 on 6 tgt31%8.5
  5. TETucker Kraft3-35 on 4 tgt37%7.7
BAL@BUFBAL −1.2O/U 54.2BAL 28–26 BUF
BAL 54%BUF 46%
BALRavens
  1. QBLamar Jackson238 pass yd · 3.0 TD · 0.3 INT · 52 rush yd26%28.4
  2. RBDerrick Henry20 car · 116 yd   1-10 rec72%20.7
  3. WRZay Flowers5-64 on 7 tgt27%11.0
  4. WRRashod Bateman3-47 on 4 tgt46%10.0
  5. TEMark Andrews3-32 on 4 tgt50%9.1
BUFBills
  1. QBJosh Allen236 pass yd · 1.9 TD · 0.3 INT · 33 rush yd56%24.8
  2. RBJames Cook13 car · 49 yd   2-16 rec71%14.8
  3. WRKhalil Shakir5-55 on 7 tgt28%10.0
  4. WRKeon Coleman2-42 on 4 tgt30%7.5
  5. TEDalton Kincaid4-38 on 6 tgt19%6.8
TB@ATLTB −7.0O/U 51.7TB 29–22 ATL
TB 70%ATL 30%
TBBuccaneers
  1. QBBaker Mayfield233 pass yd · 3.4 TD · 0.8 INT · 21 rush yd20%25.5
  2. WRChris Godwin Jr.7-74 on 8 tgt56%15.8
  3. WRMike Evans5-65 on 7 tgt59%14.6
  4. RBBucky Irving13 car · 72 yd   3-18 rec50%14.5
  5. RBRachaad White11 car · 46 yd   3-21 rec51%12.6
ATLFalcons
  1. QBKirk Cousins268 pass yd · 1.3 TD · 1.0 INT3%15.6
  2. RBBijan Robinson16 car · 74 yd   4-29 rec55%17.0
  3. WRDrake London6-76 on 10 tgt43%14.2
  4. WRDarnell Mooney4-62 on 7 tgt29%10.4
  5. TEKyle Pitts3-44 on 5 tgt22%7.4
NYG@WASWAS −9.9O/U 51.0NYG 21–30 WAS
NYG 23%WAS 77%
NYGGiants
  1. QBRussell Wilson248 pass yd · 1.6 TD · 0.4 INT · 15 rush yd15%18.4
  2. WRMalik Nabers8-85 on 12 tgt38%15.3
  3. RBTyrone Tracy Jr.10 car · 47 yd   2-20 rec26%9.7
  4. WRWan'Dale Robinson6-46 on 9 tgt19%8.7
  5. WRRay-Ray McCloud4-43 on 6 tgt10%7.0
WASCommanders
  1. QBJayden Daniels199 pass yd · 1.8 TD · 0.4 INT · 51 rush yd38%22.6
  2. WRTerry McLaurin4-61 on 6 tgt59%13.7
  3. RBAustin Ekeler7 car · 36 yd   3-27 rec40%10.6
  4. WRDeebo Samuel Sr.3-42 on 5 tgt31%9.3
  5. TEZach Ertz4-38 on 5 tgt38%8.6
DAL@PHIPHI −18.2O/U 50.2DAL 16–34 PHI
DAL 9%PHI 91%
DALCowboys
  1. QBDak Prescott242 pass yd · 1.0 TD · 1.2 INT7%13.7
  2. WRCeeDee Lamb7-74 on 11 tgt28%13.2
  3. WRGeorge Pickens4-59 on 8 tgt17%9.2
  4. RBJavonte Williams7 car · 24 yd   3-20 rec15%7.1
  5. WRJalen Tolbert3-33 on 5 tgt26%6.6
PHIEagles
  1. QBJalen Hurts187 pass yd · 1.8 TD · 0.4 INT · 42 rush yd71%25.9
  2. RBSaquon Barkley25 car · 143 yd   2-18 rec76%25.8
  3. WRA.J. Brown5-75 on 7 tgt48%13.9
  4. WRDeVonta Smith5-59 on 6 tgt52%12.8
  5. RBTank Bigsby12 car · 55 yd   0-4 rec50%10.4
CAR@JAXJAX −4.1O/U 50.2CAR 23–27 JAX
CAR 38%JAX 62%
CARPanthers
  1. QBBryce Young202 pass yd · 1.3 TD · 0.5 INT · 17 rush yd30%16.6
  2. RBChuba Hubbard16 car · 74 yd   3-15 rec51%14.7
  3. RBRico Dowdle14 car · 63 yd   2-18 rec28%11.3
  4. WRXavier Legette4-42 on 6 tgt26%7.9
  5. WRJalen Coker3-49 on 4 tgt18%7.6
JAXJaguars
  1. QBTrevor Lawrence207 pass yd · 1.5 TD · 0.5 INT · 12 rush yd24%16.8
  2. WRBrian Thomas Jr.5-73 on 8 tgt49%14.1
  3. WRJakobi Meyers6-67 on 8 tgt28%11.7
  4. RBTravis Etienne11 car · 48 yd   3-19 rec20%9.4
  5. TEBrenton Strange3-32 on 4 tgt16%5.6
MIA@INDMIA −2.4O/U 47.8MIA 25–23 IND
MIA 57%IND 43%
MIADolphins
  1. QBTua Tagovailoa269 pass yd · 2.0 TD · 0.8 INT4%18.9
  2. RBDe'Von Achane12 car · 53 yd   4-31 rec53%15.1
  3. WRTyreek Hill5-60 on 7 tgt33%11.1
  4. RBAlexander Mattison10 car · 31 yd   2-19 rec34%8.8
  5. WRNick Westbrook-Ikhine2-38 on 4 tgt46%8.6
INDColts
  1. QBDaniel Jones204 pass yd · 0.8 TD · 0.6 INT · 27 rush yd20%14.7
  2. RBJonathan Taylor21 car · 98 yd   1-11 rec56%16.5
  3. WRJosh Downs6-58 on 8 tgt31%10.8
  4. WRMichael Pittman5-51 on 7 tgt19%8.7
  5. WRAlec Pierce3-48 on 4 tgt34%8.6
CIN@CLECIN −10.7O/U 46.6CIN 29–18 CLE
CIN 79%CLE 21%
CINBengals
  1. QBJoe Burrow271 pass yd · 3.2 TD · 0.4 INT · 12 rush yd14%25.2
  2. WRJa'Marr Chase6-102 on 9 tgt67%20.2
  3. WRTee Higgins5-78 on 8 tgt60%15.8
  4. RBChase Brown16 car · 67 yd   3-21 rec59%15.8
  5. TEMike Gesicki3-35 on 5 tgt15%6.1
CLEBrowns
  1. QBDeshaun Watson190 pass yd · 0.8 TD · 0.6 INT · 21 rush yd12%13.2
  2. WRJerry Jeudy5-76 on 9 tgt20%11.6
  3. TEDavid Njoku7-56 on 10 tgt32%11.4
  4. RBJerome Ford6 car · 32 yd   3-19 rec15%7.7
  5. WRCedric Tillman3-41 on 6 tgt25%7.5
SF@SEASEA −6.3O/U 46.4SF 20–26 SEA
SF 32%SEA 68%
SF49ers
  1. QBBrock Purdy266 pass yd · 1.2 TD · 0.9 INT · 21 rush yd24%18.5
  2. TEGeorge Kittle5-73 on 7 tgt38%12.8
  3. RBChristian McCaffrey11 car · 50 yd   4-38 rec14%11.6
  4. WRJauan Jennings5-64 on 8 tgt32%11.3
  5. RBBrian Robinson12 car · 55 yd   2-13 rec37%10.3
SEASeahawks
  1. QBSam Darnold221 pass yd · 2.4 TD · 0.6 INT · 14 rush yd9%19.5
  2. RBKenneth Walker III15 car · 57 yd   4-29 rec59%16.1
  3. WRCooper Kupp5-52 on 8 tgt42%11.0
  4. WRJaxon Smith-Njigba5-57 on 8 tgt33%10.9
  5. RBZach Charbonnet9 car · 36 yd   2-21 rec47%10.8
TEN@DENDEN −12.1O/U 45.5TEN 17–29 DEN
TEN 18%DEN 82%
TENTitans
  1. QBWill Levis189 pass yd · 0.7 TD · 1.3 INT · 16 rush yd3%11.1
  2. WRCalvin Ridley4-64 on 8 tgt20%10.0
  3. RBTony Pollard14 car · 51 yd   3-19 rec20%9.9
  4. RBTyjae Spears6 car · 20 yd   3-21 rec23%7.2
  5. TEChig Okonkwo3-27 on 5 tgt11%5.1
DENBroncos
  1. QBBo Nix187 pass yd · 2.3 TD · 0.7 INT · 25 rush yd26%20.3
  2. RBJ.K. Dobbins17 car · 79 yd   2-12 rec64%16.3
  3. WRCourtland Sutton5-58 on 8 tgt43%11.5
  4. TEEvan Engram5-34 on 6 tgt16%6.8
  5. RBJaleel McLaughlin8 car · 36 yd   1-6 rec21%6.2
KC@LACLAC −3.4O/U 44.6KC 21–24 LAC
KC 40%LAC 60%
🏟 dome
KCChiefs
  1. QBPatrick Mahomes239 pass yd · 1.5 TD · 0.9 INT · 19 rush yd12%17.1
  2. WRRashee Rice6-73 on 8 tgt36%13.0
  3. RBKareem Hunt15 car · 57 yd   2-12 rec39%10.6
  4. WRXavier Worthy4-45 on 6 tgt36%9.7
  5. TETravis Kelce6-46 on 9 tgt18%8.9
LACChargers
  1. QBJustin Herbert213 pass yd · 1.3 TD · 0.2 INT · 18 rush yd13%16.1
  2. WRLadd McConkey5-63 on 7 tgt36%11.4
  3. RBNajee Harris16 car · 56 yd   2-13 rec35%10.4
  4. WRKeenan Allen5-46 on 8 tgt38%9.8
  5. WRQuentin Johnston4-43 on 6 tgt41%9.3
PIT@NYJPIT −0.0O/U 44.1PIT 22–22 NYJ
PIT 50%NYJ 50%
PITSteelers
  1. QBAaron Rodgers222 pass yd · 1.3 TD · 0.5 INT2%14.3
  2. WRAdam Thielen4-59 on 6 tgt37%10.9
  3. WRDK Metcalf4-65 on 7 tgt28%10.6
  4. TEJonnu Smith5-45 on 6 tgt36%9.7
  5. TEPat Freiermuth4-33 on 5 tgt31%7.3
NYJJets
  1. QBJustin Fields111 pass yd · 0.5 TD · 0.2 INT · 29 rush yd36%11.7
  2. RBBreece Hall13 car · 52 yd   4-31 rec39%13.0
  3. WRGarrett Wilson6-67 on 9 tgt34%12.2
  4. WRAllen Lazard3-44 on 5 tgt36%8.7
  5. WRJohn Metchie III2-27 on 4 tgt12%4.7
ARI@NOARI −5.8O/U 41.4ARI 24–18 NO
ARI 67%NO 33%
🏟 dome
ARICardinals
  1. QBKyler Murray215 pass yd · 1.0 TD · 0.7 INT · 32 rush yd26%16.8
  2. RBJames Conner16 car · 82 yd   2-21 rec47%15.4
  3. TETrey McBride6-78 on 9 tgt14%12.1
  4. WRMarvin Harrison Jr.3-49 on 6 tgt36%9.2
  5. WRMichael Wilson3-32 on 4 tgt22%6.0
NOSaints
  1. QBSpencer Rattler212 pass yd · 0.5 TD · 0.6 INT · 17 rush yd4%11.7
  2. RBAlvin Kamara15 car · 67 yd   6-45 rec36%16.5
  3. TETaysom Hill3-24 on 4 tgt36%9.5
  4. WRChris Olave4-54 on 6 tgt13%8.5
  5. WRDevaughn Vele4-40 on 4 tgt17%6.9
LV@NELV −0.1O/U 40.9LV 20–20 NE
LV 50%NE 50%
LVRaiders
  1. QBGeno Smith250 pass yd · 1.3 TD · 0.7 INT · 16 rush yd11%16.6
  2. TEBrock Bowers7-68 on 9 tgt25%11.9
  3. WRAmari Cooper4-43 on 6 tgt25%7.7
  4. WRTre Tucker3-32 on 5 tgt18%6.0
  5. WRTyler Lockett3-34 on 4 tgt12%5.6
NEPatriots
  1. QBDrake Maye176 pass yd · 1.2 TD · 0.6 INT · 30 rush yd14%15.0
  2. WRStefon Diggs6-61 on 8 tgt31%11.4
  3. RBRhamondre Stevenson14 car · 54 yd   2-11 rec38%10.5
  4. TEHunter Henry4-47 on 6 tgt12%7.6
  5. WRDeMario Douglas4-39 on 5 tgt17%7.1
HOU@LALA −3.3O/U 40.0HOU 18–22 LA
HOU 40%LA 60%
🏟 dome
HOUTexans
  1. QBC.J. Stroud242 pass yd · 1.2 TD · 0.8 INT · 14 rush yd2%15.2
  2. RBJoe Mixon17 car · 72 yd   3-27 rec48%15.4
  3. WRNico Collins6-87 on 8 tgt38%14.3
  4. WRTank Dell4-50 on 6 tgt18%8.3
  5. RBNick Chubb12 car · 43 yd   1-8 rec30%7.8
LARams
  1. QBMatthew Stafford215 pass yd · 1.4 TD · 0.6 INT3%14.2
  2. RBKyren Williams21 car · 77 yd   2-11 rec62%15.6
  3. WRPuka Nacua6-83 on 9 tgt28%13.7
  4. WRDavante Adams5-71 on 10 tgt41%13.0
  5. WRTutu Atwell2-34 on 4 tgt4%4.9
MIN@CHIMIN −3.4O/U 39.6MIN 22–18 CHI
MIN 60%CHI 40%
MINVikings
  1. WRJustin Jefferson6-96 on 9 tgt42%15.8
  2. RBAaron Jones16 car · 79 yd   3-24 rec34%14.4
  3. WRJordan Addison4-62 on 6 tgt42%11.6
  4. RBJordan Mason13 car · 77 yd   1-8 rec25%10.6
CHIBears
  1. QBCaleb Williams214 pass yd · 0.8 TD · 0.5 INT · 28 rush yd3%14.4
  2. WRDJ Moore6-58 on 8 tgt27%11.0
  3. RBD'Andre Swift14 car · 51 yd   2-18 rec25%9.9
  4. WRRome Odunze3-44 on 6 tgt15%7.2
  5. TECole Kmet3-30 on 4 tgt18%5.7