NFL Week 4 2025 – Model Preview

Read this first. These are model projections, not guarantees. It’s the season opener, so the model is seeded from 2025 usage + 2026 rosters (via Efficiency+ (HFA, recency, regression), 2025 in-season (through wk3)) — the least reliable week of the year: rookies have no data and roles are unsettled. Use it as a starting point for start/sit calls, not gospel.

Top Fantasy Plays

projected half-PPR points · TD% = anytime

Top QB

  1. QBJosh Allen240 pass yd · 2.3 TD · 0.1 INT · 37 rush yd53%26.8
  2. QBCaleb Williams266 pass yd · 2.1 TD · 0.3 INT · 28 rush yd27%23.5
  3. QBLamar Jackson211 pass yd · 2.3 TD · 0.2 INT · 31 rush yd28%22.4
  4. QBJalen Hurts163 pass yd · 1.0 TD · 0.1 INT · 42 rush yd69%21.6
  5. QBJared Goff217 pass yd · 2.8 TD · 0.3 INT8%20.8
  6. QBDaniel Jones230 pass yd · 1.2 TD · 0.1 INT · 22 rush yd54%20.6
  7. QBPatrick Mahomes223 pass yd · 1.2 TD · 0.3 INT · 35 rush yd43%20.1
  8. QBGeno Smith309 pass yd · 1.8 TD · 1.5 INT · 13 rush yd9%19.9

Top RB

  1. RBJames Cook20 car · 94 yd   3-18 rec83%23.0
  2. RBJonathan Taylor21 car · 96 yd   2-17 rec73%20.2
  3. RBJahmyr Gibbs16 car · 54 yd   5-22 rec71%17.2
  4. RBChristian McCaffrey18 car · 56 yd   7-53 rec35%17.2
  5. RBJ.K. Dobbins15 car · 82 yd   2-10 rec68%16.8
  6. RBDe'Von Achane10 car · 40 yd   6-40 rec49%15.3
  7. RBSaquon Barkley20 car · 56 yd   3-21 rec54%14.2
  8. RBDavid Montgomery13 car · 60 yd   1-8 rec66%14.1

Top WR

  1. WRRome Odunze6-86 on 9 tgt66%18.2
  2. WRAmon-Ra St. Brown6-79 on 8 tgt68%18.0
  3. WRGarrett Wilson8-86 on 10 tgt49%16.4
  4. WRTre Tucker4-74 on 7 tgt63%15.8
  5. WRPuka Nacua10-86 on 12 tgt23%15.6
  6. WRKeenan Allen6-73 on 9 tgt57%15.5
  7. WRQuentin Johnston5-77 on 7 tgt55%15.1
  8. WRCeeDee Lamb8-87 on 13 tgt20%14.0

Top TE

  1. TEJake Ferguson9-73 on 11 tgt14%12.8
  2. TEHunter Henry5-66 on 8 tgt39%12.2
  3. TEJuwan Johnson7-53 on 10 tgt31%11.1
  4. TETrey McBride6-54 on 8 tgt29%10.7
  5. TETucker Kraft4-44 on 5 tgt39%9.4
  6. TEHarold Fannin Jr.6-57 on 6 tgt12%9.3
  7. TETravis Kelce4-51 on 6 tgt30%9.2
  8. TETyler Warren5-54 on 7 tgt17%9.2

TD Magnets

highest anytime-touchdown probability
  1. James CookRBBUF v NO83%
  2. Jonathan TaylorRBIND v LA73%
  3. Jahmyr GibbsRBDET v CLE71%
  4. J.K. DobbinsRBDEN v CIN68%
  5. Amon-Ra St. BrownWRDET v CLE68%
  6. David MontgomeryRBDET v CLE66%
  7. Rome OdunzeWRCHI v LV66%
  8. Tre TuckerWRLV v CHI63%

The Slate

tap any game to expand the full report
BAL@KCBAL −0.6O/U 51.3BAL 26–25 KC
BAL 52%KC 48%
BALRavens
  1. QBLamar Jackson211 pass yd · 2.3 TD · 0.2 INT · 31 rush yd28%22.4
  2. RBDerrick Henry14 car · 74 yd   1-4 rec62%13.9
  3. WRZay Flowers5-59 on 8 tgt36%11.5
  4. TEMark Andrews3-32 on 3 tgt35%7.3
  5. WRRashod Bateman3-29 on 5 tgt29%6.4
KCChiefs
  1. QBPatrick Mahomes223 pass yd · 1.2 TD · 0.3 INT · 35 rush yd43%20.1
  2. WRTyquan Thornton3-48 on 6 tgt44%9.8
  3. WRMarquise Brown6-56 on 9 tgt17%9.6
  4. TETravis Kelce4-51 on 6 tgt30%9.2
  5. RBKareem Hunt8 car · 35 yd   1-9 rec30%7.2
NO@BUFBUF −10.1O/U 49.8NO 20–30 BUF
NO 23%BUF 77%
NOSaints
  1. QBSpencer Rattler215 pass yd · 1.7 TD · 0.4 INT · 16 rush yd8%17.1
  2. WRChris Olave8-70 on 14 tgt16%12.2
  3. RBAlvin Kamara14 car · 65 yd   3-15 rec29%11.5
  4. TEJuwan Johnson7-53 on 10 tgt31%11.1
  5. WRRashid Shaheed5-49 on 7 tgt28%9.2
BUFBills
  1. QBJosh Allen240 pass yd · 2.3 TD · 0.1 INT · 37 rush yd53%26.8
  2. RBJames Cook20 car · 94 yd   3-18 rec83%23.0
  3. WRKeon Coleman4-54 on 5 tgt32%9.7
  4. TEDalton Kincaid3-37 on 5 tgt43%8.8
  5. WRKhalil Shakir3-42 on 4 tgt30%8.0
IND@LAIND −2.9O/U 49.6IND 26–23 LA
IND 58%LA 42%
🏟 dome
INDColts
  1. QBDaniel Jones230 pass yd · 1.2 TD · 0.1 INT · 22 rush yd54%20.6
  2. RBJonathan Taylor21 car · 96 yd   2-17 rec73%20.2
  3. WRMichael Pittman5-54 on 6 tgt44%11.3
  4. TETyler Warren5-54 on 7 tgt17%9.2
  5. WRAlec Pierce3-41 on 4 tgt13%6.4
LARams
  1. QBMatthew Stafford210 pass yd · 1.9 TD · 0.8 INT7%16.3
  2. WRPuka Nacua10-86 on 12 tgt23%15.6
  3. RBKyren Williams18 car · 80 yd   2-12 rec42%13.3
  4. WRDavante Adams5-59 on 10 tgt48%12.5
  5. RBBlake Corum4 car · 27 yd   0-2 rec20%4.3
NYJ@MIAMIA −0.1O/U 49.4NYJ 25–25 MIA
NYJ 50%MIA 50%
NYJJets
  1. QBTyrod Taylor161 pass yd · 1.8 TD · 0.5 INT · 29 rush yd16%16.9
  2. WRGarrett Wilson8-86 on 10 tgt49%16.4
  3. RBBreece Hall13 car · 57 yd   3-30 rec19%11.6
  4. WRAllen Lazard2-24 on 3 tgt28%5.4
  5. RBBraelon Allen5 car · 20 yd   1-7 rec23%4.6
MIADolphins
  1. QBTua Tagovailoa217 pass yd · 2.1 TD · 1.1 INT4%16.6
  2. RBDe'Von Achane10 car · 40 yd   6-40 rec49%15.3
  3. WRTyreek Hill5-76 on 8 tgt33%12.3
  4. WRJaylen Waddle4-54 on 6 tgt42%10.6
  5. WRMalik Washington2-26 on 4 tgt16%5.7
PHI@TBPHI −1.2O/U 48.3PHI 25–24 TB
PHI 54%TB 46%
PHIEagles
  1. QBJalen Hurts163 pass yd · 1.0 TD · 0.1 INT · 42 rush yd69%21.6
  2. RBSaquon Barkley20 car · 56 yd   3-21 rec54%14.2
  3. WRA.J. Brown4-38 on 6 tgt30%7.8
  4. WRDeVonta Smith4-35 on 6 tgt30%7.7
  5. TEDallas Goedert4-27 on 4 tgt30%6.6
TBBuccaneers
  1. QBBaker Mayfield185 pass yd · 1.6 TD · 0.2 INT · 27 rush yd11%17.1
  2. RBBucky Irving18 car · 70 yd   4-23 rec32%13.5
  3. WREmeka Egbuka4-55 on 7 tgt54%12.6
  4. WRMike Evans5-53 on 9 tgt34%10.2
  5. WRSterling Shepard3-43 on 5 tgt13%6.8
CIN@DENDEN −7.3O/U 48.1CIN 20–28 DEN
CIN 29%DEN 71%
CINBengals
  1. QBJake Browning207 pass yd · 1.1 TD · 1.6 INT9%12.2
  2. WRJa'Marr Chase6-66 on 10 tgt32%12.3
  3. RBChase Brown14 car · 41 yd   3-23 rec30%10.1
  4. TENoah Fant4-32 on 5 tgt24%6.6
  5. WRTee Higgins3-31 on 5 tgt24%6.1
DENBroncos
  1. QBBo Nix172 pass yd · 2.2 TD · 1.0 INT · 26 rush yd16%18.1
  2. RBJ.K. Dobbins15 car · 82 yd   2-10 rec68%16.8
  3. WRCourtland Sutton4-52 on 6 tgt46%10.9
  4. WRTroy Franklin4-43 on 6 tgt32%8.8
  5. RBRJ Harvey5 car · 26 yd   2-12 rec14%5.5
CHI@LVLV −0.1O/U 48.0CHI 24–24 LV
CHI 50%LV 50%
🏟 dome
CHIBears
  1. QBCaleb Williams266 pass yd · 2.1 TD · 0.3 INT · 28 rush yd27%23.5
  2. WRRome Odunze6-86 on 9 tgt66%18.2
  3. RBD'Andre Swift14 car · 58 yd   3-17 rec36%11.8
  4. WRDJ Moore4-51 on 5 tgt31%10.2
  5. WROlamide Zaccheaus4-39 on 5 tgt15%7.0
LVRaiders
  1. QBGeno Smith309 pass yd · 1.8 TD · 1.5 INT · 13 rush yd9%19.9
  2. WRTre Tucker4-74 on 7 tgt63%15.8
  3. WRJakobi Meyers5-87 on 9 tgt16%12.5
  4. RBAshton Jeanty16 car · 64 yd   2-9 rec36%10.8
  5. TEBrock Bowers5-47 on 7 tgt14%8.3
MIN@PITMIN −1.3O/U 46.5MIN 24–23 PIT
MIN 54%PIT 46%
MINVikings
  1. QBJ.J. McCarthy165 pass yd · 1.2 TD · 1.3 INT · 19 rush yd25%13.8
  2. RBJordan Mason14 car · 68 yd   1-8 rec48%12.1
  3. WRJustin Jefferson4-67 on 7 tgt31%11.3
  4. RBAaron Jones7 car · 26 yd   2-16 rec25%6.7
  5. TET.J. Hockenson3-33 on 4 tgt25%6.5
PITSteelers
  1. QBAaron Rodgers170 pass yd · 1.7 TD · 1.1 INT7%13.5
  2. RBJaylen Warren14 car · 49 yd   3-27 rec29%11.2
  3. WRDK Metcalf3-40 on 6 tgt39%8.7
  4. WRCalvin Austin III3-36 on 5 tgt38%7.8
  5. RBKenny Gainwell5 car · 20 yd   2-12 rec25%6.1
CLE@DETDET −8.8O/U 46.5CLE 19–28 DET
CLE 26%DET 74%
🏟 dome
CLEBrowns
  1. QBJoe Flacco286 pass yd · 1.0 TD · 1.1 INT3%15.0
  2. RBQuinshon Judkins12 car · 59 yd   2-13 rec32%10.6
  3. WRCedric Tillman4-50 on 6 tgt37%9.8
  4. TEHarold Fannin Jr.6-57 on 6 tgt12%9.3
  5. WRJerry Jeudy4-63 on 8 tgt13%9.2
DETLions
  1. QBJared Goff217 pass yd · 2.8 TD · 0.3 INT8%20.8
  2. WRAmon-Ra St. Brown6-79 on 8 tgt68%18.0
  3. RBJahmyr Gibbs16 car · 54 yd   5-22 rec71%17.2
  4. RBDavid Montgomery13 car · 60 yd   1-8 rec66%14.1
  5. WRJameson Williams3-46 on 4 tgt27%7.9
GB@DALGB −5.0O/U 44.4GB 25–20 DAL
GB 65%DAL 35%
GBPackers
  1. QBJordan Love226 pass yd · 1.9 TD · 0.3 INT · 14 rush yd10%18.3
  2. RBJosh Jacobs21 car · 59 yd   2-19 rec56%13.8
  3. TETucker Kraft4-44 on 5 tgt39%9.4
  4. WRJayden Reed3-46 on 5 tgt37%9.0
  5. WRRomeo Doubs2-38 on 4 tgt23%6.6
DALCowboys
  1. QBDak Prescott244 pass yd · 0.9 TD · 0.9 INT4%13.2
  2. WRCeeDee Lamb8-87 on 13 tgt20%14.0
  3. RBJavonte Williams13 car · 54 yd   5-20 rec52%14.0
  4. TEJake Ferguson9-73 on 11 tgt14%12.8
  5. WRGeorge Pickens4-47 on 8 tgt40%10.0
SEA@ARISEA −3.0O/U 44.0SEA 23–21 ARI
SEA 59%ARI 41%
SEASeahawks
  1. QBSam Darnold169 pass yd · 1.0 TD · 0.5 INT3%10.9
  2. WRJaxon Smith-Njigba6-76 on 9 tgt33%13.2
  3. RBKenneth Walker III14 car · 51 yd   1-10 rec59%12.2
  4. RBZach Charbonnet14 car · 38 yd   0-0 rec39%6.8
  5. WRCooper Kupp3-33 on 5 tgt12%5.7
ARICardinals
  1. QBKyler Murray181 pass yd · 1.0 TD · 0.5 INT · 33 rush yd12%14.8
  2. TETrey McBride6-54 on 8 tgt29%10.7
  3. RBJames Conner10 car · 28 yd   3-19 rec36%8.7
  4. RBTrey Benson7 car · 27 yd   3-22 rec13%7.3
  5. WRMarvin Harrison Jr.3-38 on 6 tgt26%7.1
LAC@NYGLAC −5.0O/U 43.8LAC 24–19 NYG
LAC 64%NYG 36%
LACChargers
  1. QBJustin Herbert263 pass yd · 1.6 TD · 0.3 INT · 25 rush yd13%19.8
  2. WRKeenan Allen6-73 on 9 tgt57%15.5
  3. WRQuentin Johnston5-77 on 7 tgt55%15.1
  4. RBOmarion Hampton15 car · 66 yd   3-19 rec38%12.8
  5. WRLadd McConkey5-59 on 7 tgt14%9.3
NYGGiants
  1. QBRussell Wilson232 pass yd · 0.8 TD · 1.2 INT · 28 rush yd10%14.8
  2. WRMalik Nabers6-72 on 11 tgt44%13.4
  3. WRWan'Dale Robinson5-58 on 8 tgt27%10.0
  4. RBCam Skattebo7 car · 34 yd   3-22 rec35%9.9
  5. RBTyrone Tracy Jr.7 car · 27 yd   3-18 rec13%6.9
CAR@NECAR −3.3O/U 43.0CAR 23–20 NE
CAR 60%NE 40%
CARPanthers
  1. QBBryce Young235 pass yd · 1.7 TD · 1.1 INT · 15 rush yd20%17.8
  2. RBChuba Hubbard15 car · 48 yd   4-29 rec41%12.8
  3. WRTetairoa McMillan5-82 on 9 tgt15%11.9
  4. WRHunter Renfrow4-39 on 6 tgt40%9.0
  5. WRXavier Legette4-36 on 7 tgt19%6.8
NEPatriots
  1. QBDrake Maye237 pass yd · 1.2 TD · 0.9 INT · 30 rush yd26%18.2
  2. TEHunter Henry5-66 on 8 tgt39%12.2
  3. RBRhamondre Stevenson7 car · 34 yd   3-32 rec13%9.0
  4. RBTreVeyon Henderson6 car · 27 yd   3-22 rec13%7.5
  5. WRKayshon Boutte2-32 on 4 tgt21%5.9
WAS@ATLWAS −2.7O/U 42.5WAS 23–20 ATL
WAS 58%ATL 42%
WASCommanders
  1. QBJayden Daniels185 pass yd · 1.3 TD · 0.3 INT · 42 rush yd18%17.7
  2. WRDeebo Samuel Sr.4-44 on 7 tgt35%9.8
  3. TEZach Ertz3-31 on 5 tgt37%7.6
  4. RBJacory Croskey-Merritt8 car · 33 yd   1-4 rec39%7.0
  5. WRTerry McLaurin3-43 on 6 tgt13%6.6
ATLFalcons
  1. QBMichael Penix Jr.242 pass yd · 0.6 TD · 0.7 INT · 12 rush yd17%13.9
  2. RBBijan Robinson15 car · 58 yd   4-37 rec30%13.7
  3. WRDrake London6-71 on 9 tgt14%10.8
  4. TEKyle Pitts5-55 on 6 tgt12%8.8
  5. WRDarnell Mooney4-54 on 8 tgt16%8.5
JAX@SFSF −1.4O/U 41.0JAX 20–21 SF
JAX 46%SF 54%
JAXJaguars
  1. QBTrevor Lawrence199 pass yd · 1.2 TD · 1.2 INT · 11 rush yd7%13.1
  2. RBTravis Etienne15 car · 67 yd   2-11 rec37%11.6
  3. WRBrian Thomas Jr.4-47 on 8 tgt15%7.7
  4. WRDyami Brown3-37 on 5 tgt24%7.4
  5. WRParker Washington4-38 on 5 tgt11%6.3
SF49ers
  1. QBMac Jones233 pass yd · 1.7 TD · 0.7 INT · 12 rush yd10%17.2
  2. RBChristian McCaffrey18 car · 56 yd   7-53 rec35%17.2
  3. WRRicky Pearsall5-67 on 8 tgt15%10.2
  4. WRJauan Jennings4-46 on 7 tgt34%8.9
  5. TEGeorge Kittle3-23 on 4 tgt29%6.0
TEN@HOUHOU −5.0O/U 40.5TEN 18–23 HOU
TEN 36%HOU 64%
TENTitans
  1. QBCam Ward180 pass yd · 0.6 TD · 0.3 INT6%10.4
  2. RBTony Pollard17 car · 63 yd   1-12 rec27%10.0
  3. WRElic Ayomanor4-40 on 6 tgt34%8.3
  4. WRCalvin Ridley3-44 on 7 tgt12%6.8
  5. TEChig Okonkwo4-33 on 6 tgt10%6.1
HOUTexans
  1. QBC.J. Stroud198 pass yd · 0.7 TD · 1.1 INT · 23 rush yd11%12.7
  2. WRNico Collins5-67 on 8 tgt43%12.5
  3. RBNick Chubb12 car · 61 yd   2-9 rec33%10.2
  4. WRChristian Kirk4-53 on 8 tgt23%9.1
  5. TEDalton Schultz4-31 on 5 tgt11%5.6