NFL Week 6 2025 – Model Preview

Read this first. These are model projections, not guarantees. It’s the season opener, so the model is seeded from 2025 usage + 2026 rosters (via Efficiency+ (HFA, recency, regression), 2025 in-season (through wk5)) — the least reliable week of the year: rookies have no data and roles are unsettled. Use it as a starting point for start/sit calls, not gospel.

Top Fantasy Plays

projected half-PPR points · TD% = anytime

Top QB

  1. QBPatrick Mahomes270 pass yd · 2.2 TD · 0.6 INT · 34 rush yd41%25.6
  2. QBMatthew Stafford280 pass yd · 3.4 TD · 0.3 INT8%25.3
  3. QBMac Jones321 pass yd · 2.6 TD · 0.3 INT · 11 rush yd10%24.7
  4. QBCaleb Williams282 pass yd · 2.2 TD · 0.5 INT · 28 rush yd23%24.0
  5. QBLamar Jackson214 pass yd · 2.3 TD · 0.3 INT · 34 rush yd25%22.5
  6. QBJayden Daniels232 pass yd · 1.9 TD · 0.2 INT · 41 rush yd16%22.0
  7. QBJosh Allen198 pass yd · 1.8 TD · 0.5 INT · 41 rush yd43%22.0
  8. QBJordan Love233 pass yd · 2.7 TD · 0.4 INT · 15 rush yd10%21.8

Top RB

  1. RBJonathan Taylor21 car · 96 yd   3-22 rec82%23.4
  2. RBChristian McCaffrey18 car · 50 yd   8-89 rec50%22.2
  3. RBJosh Jacobs23 car · 86 yd   3-27 rec78%21.6
  4. RBJavonte Williams16 car · 94 yd   4-17 rec72%20.5
  5. RBJahmyr Gibbs14 car · 75 yd   4-22 rec67%18.4
  6. RBKyren Williams18 car · 89 yd   3-21 rec61%18.2
  7. RBBijan Robinson16 car · 86 yd   4-44 rec41%18.2
  8. RBJames Cook18 car · 90 yd   2-13 rec65%17.7

Top WR

  1. WRPuka Nacua10-104 on 12 tgt48%19.6
  2. WRRome Odunze6-82 on 9 tgt66%17.4
  3. WRAmon-Ra St. Brown6-67 on 8 tgt69%17.2
  4. WREmeka Egbuka5-79 on 8 tgt60%16.1
  5. WRQuentin Johnston6-76 on 8 tgt50%14.9
  6. WRDeebo Samuel Sr.5-67 on 7 tgt53%14.6
  7. WRJaxon Smith-Njigba6-83 on 9 tgt38%14.4
  8. WRCeeDee Lamb7-90 on 12 tgt25%14.3

Top TE

  1. TEJake Ferguson9-69 on 10 tgt51%15.6
  2. TETrey McBride7-58 on 9 tgt22%10.7
  3. TETyler Warren4-55 on 6 tgt30%10.2
  4. TEJuwan Johnson5-57 on 7 tgt22%10.0
  5. TEHunter Henry3-46 on 5 tgt42%9.5
  6. TEKyle Pitts5-52 on 6 tgt25%9.4
  7. TESam LaPorta4-52 on 5 tgt25%9.2
  8. TEDarren Waller3-33 on 4 tgt51%9.2

TD Magnets

highest anytime-touchdown probability
  1. Jonathan TaylorRBIND v ARI82%
  2. Josh JacobsRBGB v CIN78%
  3. Javonte WilliamsRBDAL v CAR72%
  4. Amon-Ra St. BrownWRDET v KC69%
  5. Jahmyr GibbsRBDET v KC67%
  6. Rome OdunzeWRCHI v WAS66%
  7. James CookRBBUF v ATL65%
  8. George PickensWRDAL v CAR63%

The Slate

tap any game to expand the full report
LA@BALLA −5.4O/U 57.6LA 32–26 BAL
LA 66%BAL 34%
LARams
  1. QBMatthew Stafford280 pass yd · 3.4 TD · 0.3 INT8%25.3
  2. WRPuka Nacua10-104 on 12 tgt48%19.6
  3. RBKyren Williams18 car · 89 yd   3-21 rec61%18.2
  4. WRDavante Adams5-66 on 9 tgt53%13.4
  5. RBBlake Corum5 car · 29 yd   1-5 rec27%5.8
BALRavens
  1. QBLamar Jackson214 pass yd · 2.3 TD · 0.3 INT · 34 rush yd25%22.5
  2. WRZay Flowers6-74 on 8 tgt28%12.4
  3. RBDerrick Henry12 car · 46 yd   1-7 rec55%10.5
  4. TEMark Andrews3-29 on 4 tgt34%7.1
  5. RBJustice Hill2 car · 7 yd   3-20 rec26%6.0
DAL@CARCAR −0.5O/U 54.4DAL 27–27 CAR
DAL 48%CAR 52%
DALCowboys
  1. QBDak Prescott270 pass yd · 2.3 TD · 0.8 INT · 11 rush yd16%21.3
  2. RBJavonte Williams16 car · 94 yd   4-17 rec72%20.5
  3. TEJake Ferguson9-69 on 10 tgt51%15.6
  4. WRCeeDee Lamb7-90 on 12 tgt25%14.3
  5. WRGeorge Pickens4-58 on 7 tgt63%13.8
CARPanthers
  1. QBBryce Young226 pass yd · 2.1 TD · 0.6 INT · 12 rush yd17%19.1
  2. RBChuba Hubbard13 car · 56 yd   4-29 rec42%13.5
  3. WRTetairoa McMillan5-83 on 9 tgt13%11.9
  4. RBRico Dowdle10 car · 55 yd   2-13 rec40%10.7
  5. WRXavier Legette3-34 on 6 tgt33%7.5
DET@KCDET −2.3O/U 52.0DET 27–25 KC
DET 57%KC 43%
DETLions
  1. QBJared Goff220 pass yd · 2.1 TD · 0.5 INT6%17.5
  2. RBJahmyr Gibbs14 car · 75 yd   4-22 rec67%18.4
  3. WRAmon-Ra St. Brown6-67 on 8 tgt69%17.2
  4. RBDavid Montgomery13 car · 70 yd   1-8 rec60%13.9
  5. TESam LaPorta4-52 on 5 tgt25%9.2
KCChiefs
  1. QBPatrick Mahomes270 pass yd · 2.2 TD · 0.6 INT · 34 rush yd41%25.6
  2. WRMarquise Brown5-61 on 8 tgt25%10.3
  3. WRTyquan Thornton3-54 on 5 tgt41%10.0
  4. TETravis Kelce4-42 on 6 tgt35%8.9
  5. WRXavier Worthy4-49 on 6 tgt18%8.5
SEA@JAXJAX −0.1O/U 50.7SEA 25–25 JAX
SEA 50%JAX 50%
SEASeahawks
  1. QBSam Darnold225 pass yd · 1.6 TD · 0.7 INT2%15.3
  2. WRJaxon Smith-Njigba6-83 on 9 tgt38%14.4
  3. RBKenneth Walker III14 car · 58 yd   1-11 rec49%11.5
  4. RBZach Charbonnet12 car · 35 yd   1-6 rec53%8.9
  5. TEAJ Barner3-26 on 3 tgt44%7.6
JAXJaguars
  1. QBTrevor Lawrence216 pass yd · 1.3 TD · 1.2 INT · 20 rush yd32%16.8
  2. RBTravis Etienne15 car · 67 yd   2-14 rec47%13.1
  3. WRBrian Thomas Jr.4-49 on 8 tgt15%7.8
  4. WRDyami Brown3-32 on 4 tgt26%6.7
  5. TEBrenton Strange4-38 on 5 tgt12%6.5
CHI@WASWAS −5.3O/U 50.6CHI 23–28 WAS
CHI 35%WAS 65%
CHIBears
  1. QBCaleb Williams282 pass yd · 2.2 TD · 0.5 INT · 28 rush yd23%24.0
  2. WRRome Odunze6-82 on 9 tgt66%17.4
  3. RBD'Andre Swift13 car · 37 yd   3-30 rec41%11.5
  4. WRDJ Moore4-48 on 6 tgt26%9.1
  5. WROlamide Zaccheaus4-40 on 6 tgt13%6.9
WASCommanders
  1. QBJayden Daniels232 pass yd · 1.9 TD · 0.2 INT · 41 rush yd16%22.0
  2. WRDeebo Samuel Sr.5-67 on 7 tgt53%14.6
  3. RBJacory Croskey-Merritt9 car · 65 yd   1-9 rec59%13.4
  4. RBAustin Ekeler8 car · 34 yd   3-21 rec24%8.6
  5. WRTerry McLaurin3-53 on 5 tgt15%7.8
SF@TBTB −1.2O/U 49.2SF 24–25 TB
SF 46%TB 54%
SF49ers
  1. QBMac Jones321 pass yd · 2.6 TD · 0.3 INT · 11 rush yd10%24.7
  2. RBChristian McCaffrey18 car · 50 yd   8-89 rec50%22.2
  3. WRRicky Pearsall5-66 on 7 tgt14%9.9
  4. TEJake Tonges4-34 on 6 tgt42%8.8
  5. WRJauan Jennings3-41 on 6 tgt30%8.0
TBBuccaneers
  1. QBBaker Mayfield227 pass yd · 2.1 TD · 0.3 INT · 24 rush yd8%20.2
  2. WREmeka Egbuka5-79 on 8 tgt60%16.1
  3. RBBucky Irving18 car · 63 yd   4-31 rec41%14.7
  4. WRMike Evans5-55 on 9 tgt35%10.6
  5. RBRachaad White8 car · 31 yd   2-11 rec45%8.8
CIN@GBGB −11.8O/U 48.5CIN 18–30 GB
CIN 19%GB 81%
CINBengals
  1. QBJake Browning189 pass yd · 1.1 TD · 1.6 INT · 10 rush yd12%12.2
  2. WRJa'Marr Chase7-68 on 10 tgt40%13.4
  3. RBChase Brown11 car · 27 yd   4-19 rec21%8.1
  4. TENoah Fant4-32 on 5 tgt24%7.1
  5. WRTee Higgins3-33 on 6 tgt27%6.8
GBPackers
  1. QBJordan Love233 pass yd · 2.7 TD · 0.4 INT · 15 rush yd10%21.8
  2. RBJosh Jacobs23 car · 86 yd   3-27 rec78%21.6
  3. WRRomeo Doubs3-40 on 4 tgt55%10.3
  4. TETucker Kraft3-42 on 4 tgt40%9.1
  5. WRJayden Reed3-39 on 4 tgt41%8.6
ARI@INDIND −8.9O/U 46.2ARI 19–28 IND
ARI 26%IND 74%
ARICardinals
  1. QBKyler Murray208 pass yd · 1.1 TD · 0.8 INT · 32 rush yd17%16.2
  2. TETrey McBride7-58 on 9 tgt22%10.7
  3. WRMarvin Harrison Jr.5-62 on 7 tgt29%10.6
  4. RBJames Conner9 car · 34 yd   2-14 rec34%8.4
  5. RBMichael Carter8 car · 30 yd   2-12 rec29%7.3
INDColts
  1. QBDaniel Jones206 pass yd · 1.1 TD · 0.3 INT · 14 rush yd40%16.7
  2. RBJonathan Taylor21 car · 96 yd   3-22 rec82%23.4
  3. WRMichael Pittman4-44 on 6 tgt52%11.0
  4. TETyler Warren4-55 on 6 tgt30%10.2
  5. WRAlec Pierce2-36 on 4 tgt12%5.6
NE@NONE −4.6O/U 45.7NE 25–21 NO
NE 63%NO 37%
🏟 dome
NEPatriots
  1. QBDrake Maye239 pass yd · 1.8 TD · 0.4 INT · 23 rush yd32%20.9
  2. WRStefon Diggs5-65 on 6 tgt11%9.8
  3. TEHunter Henry3-46 on 5 tgt42%9.5
  4. RBRhamondre Stevenson8 car · 30 yd   2-21 rec37%9.1
  5. RBTreVeyon Henderson7 car · 26 yd   3-16 rec26%7.4
NOSaints
  1. QBSpencer Rattler249 pass yd · 1.5 TD · 0.4 INT · 23 rush yd7%18.2
  2. WRChris Olave8-67 on 11 tgt23%12.1
  3. WRRashid Shaheed5-64 on 6 tgt30%11.1
  4. RBAlvin Kamara14 car · 43 yd   4-22 rec24%10.1
  5. TEJuwan Johnson5-57 on 7 tgt22%10.0
DEN@NYJDEN −6.5O/U 45.7DEN 26–20 NYJ
DEN 69%NYJ 31%
DENBroncos
  1. QBBo Nix226 pass yd · 2.1 TD · 0.7 INT · 22 rush yd22%20.3
  2. RBJ.K. Dobbins17 car · 85 yd   1-6 rec62%15.5
  3. WRCourtland Sutton5-77 on 7 tgt44%13.6
  4. WRTroy Franklin4-53 on 6 tgt24%9.0
  5. RBRJ Harvey7 car · 31 yd   2-12 rec23%7.0
NYJJets
  1. QBJustin Fields191 pass yd · 0.8 TD · 0.1 INT · 46 rush yd42%18.6
  2. WRGarrett Wilson6-67 on 10 tgt49%14.0
  3. RBBreece Hall12 car · 64 yd   4-37 rec13%12.9
  4. TEMason Taylor4-33 on 6 tgt10%5.9
  5. RBBraelon Allen4 car · 18 yd   1-6 rec16%3.7
BUF@ATLBUF −1.8O/U 45.3BUF 24–22 ATL
BUF 55%ATL 45%
BUFBills
  1. QBJosh Allen198 pass yd · 1.8 TD · 0.5 INT · 41 rush yd43%22.0
  2. RBJames Cook18 car · 90 yd   2-13 rec65%17.7
  3. WRKhalil Shakir4-43 on 6 tgt32%8.5
  4. TEDalton Kincaid3-38 on 5 tgt39%8.4
  5. WRKeon Coleman4-42 on 6 tgt31%8.2
ATLFalcons
  1. QBMichael Penix Jr.210 pass yd · 0.8 TD · 0.6 INT · 12 rush yd17%13.5
  2. RBBijan Robinson16 car · 86 yd   4-44 rec41%18.2
  3. WRDrake London6-71 on 9 tgt27%12.2
  4. TEKyle Pitts5-52 on 6 tgt25%9.4
  5. RBTyler Allgeier10 car · 46 yd   0-3 rec36%7.9
TEN@LVLV −1.1O/U 44.7TEN 22–23 LV
TEN 47%LV 53%
🏟 dome
TENTitans
  1. QBCam Ward192 pass yd · 0.5 TD · 0.5 INT · 10 rush yd6%10.7
  2. RBTony Pollard16 car · 63 yd   2-11 rec36%11.0
  3. WRCalvin Ridley4-57 on 7 tgt10%8.2
  4. WRElic Ayomanor3-40 on 6 tgt30%7.8
  5. TEChig Okonkwo3-40 on 5 tgt10%6.2
LVRaiders
  1. QBGeno Smith241 pass yd · 1.0 TD · 1.5 INT · 15 rush yd7%14.1
  2. RBAshton Jeanty17 car · 85 yd   2-14 rec50%15.2
  3. WRTre Tucker4-59 on 6 tgt48%12.4
  4. WRJakobi Meyers5-66 on 8 tgt11%10.0
  5. TEBrock Bowers5-44 on 7 tgt13%7.8
LAC@MIALAC −0.1O/U 44.5LAC 22–22 MIA
LAC 50%MIA 50%
LACChargers
  1. QBJustin Herbert283 pass yd · 1.9 TD · 0.6 INT · 27 rush yd8%21.6
  2. RBOmarion Hampton13 car · 74 yd   4-32 rec37%15.4
  3. WRQuentin Johnston6-76 on 8 tgt50%14.9
  4. WRKeenan Allen6-64 on 9 tgt43%12.9
  5. WRLadd McConkey5-49 on 7 tgt22%8.7
MIADolphins
  1. QBTua Tagovailoa178 pass yd · 1.5 TD · 0.7 INT4%13.3
  2. RBDe'Von Achane12 car · 55 yd   5-29 rec51%15.1
  3. WRJaylen Waddle4-50 on 6 tgt40%10.1
  4. WRTyreek Hill4-56 on 7 tgt25%9.6
  5. TEDarren Waller3-33 on 4 tgt51%9.2
PHI@NYGPHI −4.8O/U 43.6PHI 24–19 NYG
PHI 64%NYG 36%
PHIEagles
  1. QBJalen Hurts159 pass yd · 1.1 TD · 0.1 INT · 37 rush yd53%19.0
  2. RBSaquon Barkley18 car · 73 yd   3-22 rec57%16.2
  3. TEDallas Goedert3-27 on 5 tgt52%8.8
  4. WRDeVonta Smith4-51 on 6 tgt22%8.8
  5. WRA.J. Brown4-44 on 7 tgt23%7.9
NYGGiants
  1. QBRussell Wilson186 pass yd · 0.6 TD · 0.6 INT · 21 rush yd7%12.0
  2. RBCam Skattebo12 car · 46 yd   4-34 rec32%12.2
  3. WRMalik Nabers4-63 on 9 tgt36%11.2
  4. WRWan'Dale Robinson4-49 on 7 tgt20%8.5
  5. RBTyrone Tracy Jr.7 car · 25 yd   3-27 rec15%7.8
CLE@PITPIT −7.3O/U 41.5CLE 17–24 PIT
CLE 29%PIT 71%
CLEBrowns
  1. QBJoe Flacco270 pass yd · 0.6 TD · 1.9 INT4%12.3
  2. RBQuinshon Judkins16 car · 70 yd   2-20 rec33%12.7
  3. TEDavid Njoku4-52 on 6 tgt19%8.6
  4. TEHarold Fannin Jr.4-47 on 6 tgt19%8.3
  5. WRJerry Jeudy4-55 on 8 tgt8%8.1
PITSteelers
  1. QBAaron Rodgers170 pass yd · 2.2 TD · 0.5 INT7%16.3
  2. WRDK Metcalf4-57 on 5 tgt43%10.9
  3. RBKenny Gainwell10 car · 34 yd   3-14 rec54%10.8
  4. RBJaylen Warren16 car · 44 yd   3-25 rec33%10.7
  5. WRCalvin Austin III3-34 on 4 tgt31%6.9