NFL Week 8 2025 – Model Preview

Read this first. These are model projections, not guarantees. It’s the season opener, so the model is seeded from 2025 usage + 2026 rosters (via Efficiency+ (HFA, recency, regression), 2025 in-season (through wk7)) — the least reliable week of the year: rookies have no data and roles are unsettled. Use it as a starting point for start/sit calls, not gospel.

Top Fantasy Plays

projected half-PPR points · TD% = anytime

Top QB

  1. QBPatrick Mahomes278 pass yd · 3.0 TD · 0.2 INT · 25 rush yd35%28.2
  2. QBJoe Flacco297 pass yd · 3.0 TD · 0.2 INT8%24.9
  3. QBBo Nix270 pass yd · 2.1 TD · 0.2 INT · 26 rush yd43%24.8
  4. QBLamar Jackson226 pass yd · 2.3 TD · 0.6 INT · 34 rush yd15%21.9
  5. QBDak Prescott250 pass yd · 2.5 TD · 0.4 INT · 10 rush yd17%21.6
  6. QBBaker Mayfield279 pass yd · 2.1 TD · 0.4 INT · 15 rush yd7%21.1
  7. QBJalen Hurts218 pass yd · 1.8 TD · 0.2 INT · 23 rush yd34%20.6
  8. QBCaleb Williams222 pass yd · 2.1 TD · 0.4 INT · 13 rush yd26%20.1

Top RB

  1. RBJonathan Taylor20 car · 110 yd   3-17 rec94%31.4
  2. RBBijan Robinson17 car · 110 yd   5-63 rec57%25.2
  3. RBJosh Jacobs17 car · 71 yd   4-34 rec77%21.1
  4. RBChristian McCaffrey18 car · 59 yd   7-62 rec52%20.1
  5. RBRico Dowdle18 car · 121 yd   2-14 rec44%18.0
  6. RBD'Andre Swift16 car · 84 yd   3-29 rec58%17.9
  7. RBCam Skattebo16 car · 66 yd   4-39 rec59%17.8
  8. RBOmarion Hampton14 car · 71 yd   5-31 rec49%16.8

Top WR

  1. WRJa'Marr Chase8-102 on 12 tgt54%19.3
  2. WRRashee Rice6-67 on 9 tgt71%17.3
  3. WRGeorge Pickens5-74 on 8 tgt62%15.8
  4. WRDrake London7-84 on 10 tgt41%15.1
  5. WRGarrett Wilson7-73 on 10 tgt50%14.7
  6. WRCourtland Sutton6-88 on 7 tgt37%14.3
  7. WREmeka Egbuka5-85 on 8 tgt36%13.6
  8. WRKeenan Allen6-79 on 10 tgt34%13.6

Top TE

  1. TEJake Ferguson6-54 on 8 tgt69%15.6
  2. TEDalton Kincaid4-60 on 5 tgt38%10.9
  3. TETyler Warren4-40 on 5 tgt50%10.4
  4. TEMark Andrews5-42 on 6 tgt41%10.2
  5. TEDallas Goedert4-33 on 6 tgt58%10.2
  6. TETravis Kelce5-55 on 6 tgt25%9.7
  7. TEKyle Pitts5-52 on 6 tgt27%9.5
  8. TETucker Kraft4-48 on 5 tgt37%9.4

TD Magnets

highest anytime-touchdown probability
  1. Jonathan TaylorRBIND v TEN94%
  2. Josh JacobsRBGB v PIT77%
  3. Rashee RiceWRKC v WAS71%
  4. Jake FergusonTEDAL v DEN69%
  5. George PickensWRDAL v DEN62%
  6. Jordan MasonRBMIN v LAC62%
  7. Cam SkatteboRBNYG v PHI59%
  8. D'Andre SwiftRBCHI v BAL58%

The Slate

tap any game to expand the full report
CHI@BALCHI −3.4O/U 52.9CHI 28–25 BAL
CHI 60%BAL 40%
CHIBears
  1. QBCaleb Williams222 pass yd · 2.1 TD · 0.4 INT · 13 rush yd26%20.1
  2. RBD'Andre Swift16 car · 84 yd   3-29 rec58%17.9
  3. WRRome Odunze3-44 on 6 tgt41%9.2
  4. WRDJ Moore3-34 on 5 tgt30%7.8
  5. RBKyle Monangai7 car · 37 yd   1-8 rec30%7.1
BALRavens
  1. QBLamar Jackson226 pass yd · 2.3 TD · 0.6 INT · 34 rush yd15%21.9
  2. RBDerrick Henry14 car · 71 yd   1-10 rec43%12.1
  3. TEMark Andrews5-42 on 6 tgt41%10.2
  4. WRZay Flowers5-61 on 7 tgt13%9.2
  5. RBJustice Hill2 car · 17 yd   4-30 rec31%9.0
DAL@DENDEN −1.3O/U 52.9DAL 26–27 DEN
DAL 46%DEN 54%
DALCowboys
  1. QBDak Prescott250 pass yd · 2.5 TD · 0.4 INT · 10 rush yd17%21.6
  2. RBJavonte Williams15 car · 79 yd   3-18 rec58%16.4
  3. WRGeorge Pickens5-74 on 8 tgt62%15.8
  4. TEJake Ferguson6-54 on 8 tgt69%15.6
  5. WRCeeDee Lamb5-64 on 8 tgt51%13.0
DENBroncos
  1. QBBo Nix270 pass yd · 2.1 TD · 0.2 INT · 26 rush yd43%24.8
  2. WRCourtland Sutton6-88 on 7 tgt37%14.3
  3. RBJ.K. Dobbins15 car · 81 yd   1-6 rec42%12.5
  4. TEEvan Engram5-40 on 7 tgt32%8.9
  5. RBRJ Harvey5 car · 20 yd   3-23 rec33%8.1
TEN@INDIND −16.6O/U 50.2TEN 17–33 IND
TEN 11%IND 89%
TENTitans
  1. QBCam Ward249 pass yd · 0.7 TD · 1.4 INT4%12.2
  2. RBTony Pollard10 car · 38 yd   3-17 rec26%8.8
  3. WRCalvin Ridley3-50 on 6 tgt9%7.2
  4. TEChig Okonkwo4-43 on 5 tgt9%6.6
  5. WRElic Ayomanor3-37 on 6 tgt17%6.5
INDColts
  1. QBDaniel Jones225 pass yd · 1.8 TD · 0.5 INT · 12 rush yd21%18.3
  2. RBJonathan Taylor20 car · 110 yd   3-17 rec94%31.4
  3. WRMichael Pittman5-52 on 6 tgt56%12.6
  4. TETyler Warren4-40 on 5 tgt50%10.4
  5. WRAlec Pierce4-67 on 6 tgt16%9.6
TB@NOTB −3.4O/U 48.1TB 26–22 NO
TB 60%NO 40%
🏟 dome
TBBuccaneers
  1. QBBaker Mayfield279 pass yd · 2.1 TD · 0.4 INT · 15 rush yd7%21.1
  2. RBBucky Irving21 car · 75 yd   4-38 rec43%16.6
  3. WREmeka Egbuka5-85 on 8 tgt36%13.6
  4. RBRachaad White11 car · 39 yd   3-18 rec50%11.4
  5. TECade Otton5-48 on 6 tgt15%8.0
NOSaints
  1. QBSpencer Rattler238 pass yd · 1.1 TD · 0.9 INT · 20 rush yd7%15.6
  2. WRChris Olave6-68 on 10 tgt44%13.4
  3. RBAlvin Kamara12 car · 37 yd   4-25 rec14%9.0
  4. WRRashid Shaheed4-52 on 6 tgt22%8.8
  5. TEJuwan Johnson4-36 on 5 tgt11%6.4
GB@PITGB −0.2O/U 47.9GB 24–24 PIT
GB 51%PIT 49%
GBPackers
  1. QBJordan Love239 pass yd · 1.4 TD · 0.5 INT · 22 rush yd9%17.4
  2. RBJosh Jacobs17 car · 71 yd   4-34 rec77%21.1
  3. WRRomeo Doubs5-53 on 7 tgt48%11.5
  4. TETucker Kraft4-48 on 5 tgt37%9.4
  5. WRMatthew Golden4-49 on 5 tgt14%8.4
PITSteelers
  1. QBAaron Rodgers173 pass yd · 1.9 TD · 0.6 INT6%15.2
  2. WRDK Metcalf4-59 on 6 tgt45%11.4
  3. RBJaylen Warren15 car · 60 yd   4-20 rec21%11.3
  4. RBKenny Gainwell8 car · 30 yd   4-14 rec48%10.2
  5. TEPat Freiermuth3-26 on 3 tgt34%6.4
NYG@PHIPHI −3.8O/U 47.9NYG 22–26 PHI
NYG 39%PHI 61%
NYGGiants
  1. QBJaxson Dart158 pass yd · 1.1 TD · 0.6 INT · 35 rush yd40%16.6
  2. RBCam Skattebo16 car · 66 yd   4-39 rec59%17.8
  3. WRWan'Dale Robinson4-50 on 7 tgt22%8.7
  4. TETheo Johnson3-27 on 5 tgt46%8.0
  5. WRDarius Slayton3-35 on 5 tgt12%5.8
PHIEagles
  1. QBJalen Hurts218 pass yd · 1.8 TD · 0.2 INT · 23 rush yd34%20.6
  2. WRDeVonta Smith6-76 on 7 tgt35%12.9
  3. WRA.J. Brown5-68 on 8 tgt46%12.8
  4. RBSaquon Barkley15 car · 61 yd   3-18 rec38%12.1
  5. TEDallas Goedert4-33 on 6 tgt58%10.2
WAS@KCKC −8.2O/U 47.6WAS 20–28 KC
WAS 27%KC 73%
WASCommanders
  1. QBJayden Daniels199 pass yd · 1.2 TD · 0.4 INT · 40 rush yd26%18.1
  2. WRDeebo Samuel Sr.5-45 on 7 tgt36%10.4
  3. RBJacory Croskey-Merritt10 car · 51 yd   2-11 rec36%9.7
  4. TEZach Ertz4-34 on 4 tgt28%7.0
  5. WRTerry McLaurin3-37 on 4 tgt14%6.1
KCChiefs
  1. QBPatrick Mahomes278 pass yd · 3.0 TD · 0.2 INT · 25 rush yd35%28.2
  2. WRRashee Rice6-67 on 9 tgt71%17.3
  3. WRMarquise Brown3-41 on 5 tgt50%9.8
  4. WRXavier Worthy4-49 on 6 tgt30%9.7
  5. TETravis Kelce5-55 on 6 tgt25%9.7
NYJ@CINNYJ −0.1O/U 46.1NYJ 23–23 CIN
NYJ 50%CIN 50%
NYJJets
  1. QBTyrod Taylor197 pass yd · 1.4 TD · 1.5 INT · 26 rush yd13%15.4
  2. WRGarrett Wilson7-73 on 10 tgt50%14.7
  3. RBBreece Hall14 car · 71 yd   3-28 rec15%12.5
  4. TEMason Taylor4-42 on 6 tgt12%7.0
  5. WRJosh Reynolds3-30 on 4 tgt10%5.0
CINBengals
  1. QBJoe Flacco297 pass yd · 3.0 TD · 0.2 INT8%24.9
  2. WRJa'Marr Chase8-102 on 12 tgt54%19.3
  3. WRTee Higgins4-55 on 7 tgt32%9.7
  4. RBChase Brown10 car · 40 yd   3-15 rec14%8.0
  5. TETanner Hudson4-24 on 5 tgt39%7.1
MIN@LACMIN −1.4O/U 45.7MIN 24–22 LAC
MIN 54%LAC 46%
🏟 dome
MINVikings
  1. QBCarson Wentz242 pass yd · 1.1 TD · 1.2 INT · 13 rush yd7%14.6
  2. RBJordan Mason15 car · 84 yd   1-7 rec62%15.7
  3. WRJordan Addison5-77 on 8 tgt32%12.7
  4. WRJustin Jefferson6-85 on 10 tgt13%12.4
  5. TET.J. Hockenson5-42 on 6 tgt27%8.4
LACChargers
  1. QBJustin Herbert296 pass yd · 1.7 TD · 0.9 INT · 18 rush yd6%20.0
  2. RBOmarion Hampton14 car · 71 yd   5-31 rec49%16.8
  3. WRKeenan Allen6-79 on 10 tgt34%13.6
  4. WRQuentin Johnston5-78 on 8 tgt38%13.2
  5. WRLadd McConkey5-68 on 9 tgt34%11.9
BUF@CARCAR −0.4O/U 45.4BUF 23–23 CAR
BUF 49%CAR 51%
BUFBills
  1. QBJosh Allen201 pass yd · 1.9 TD · 1.1 INT · 37 rush yd23%19.9
  2. RBJames Cook18 car · 87 yd   2-8 rec43%13.6
  3. TEDalton Kincaid4-60 on 5 tgt38%10.9
  4. WRKhalil Shakir4-44 on 6 tgt35%9.0
  5. WRKeon Coleman3-30 on 5 tgt23%6.0
CARPanthers
  1. QBBryce Young156 pass yd · 1.2 TD · 0.3 INT13%12.5
  2. RBRico Dowdle18 car · 121 yd   2-14 rec44%18.0
  3. RBChuba Hubbard14 car · 65 yd   2-13 rec19%10.1
  4. WRTetairoa McMillan4-52 on 7 tgt32%9.5
  5. WRXavier Legette4-45 on 5 tgt38%9.3
MIA@ATLATL −6.0O/U 43.5MIA 19–25 ATL
MIA 33%ATL 67%
MIADolphins
  1. QBTua Tagovailoa167 pass yd · 1.3 TD · 1.7 INT4%11.3
  2. RBDe'Von Achane13 car · 72 yd   5-22 rec45%15.4
  3. WRTyreek Hill5-57 on 8 tgt33%10.6
  4. WRJaylen Waddle4-55 on 7 tgt28%9.5
  5. TEDarren Waller2-21 on 3 tgt38%6.1
ATLFalcons
  1. QBMichael Penix Jr.252 pass yd · 1.4 TD · 0.6 INT7%16.2
  2. RBBijan Robinson17 car · 110 yd   5-63 rec57%25.2
  3. WRDrake London7-84 on 10 tgt41%15.1
  4. TEKyle Pitts5-52 on 6 tgt27%9.5
  5. RBTyler Allgeier8 car · 38 yd   1-4 rec39%7.5
CLE@NENE −7.4O/U 39.9CLE 16–24 NE
CLE 29%NE 71%
CLEBrowns
  1. QBJoe Flacco235 pass yd · 0.4 TD · 1.6 INT4%10.1
  2. RBQuinshon Judkins18 car · 58 yd   2-13 rec47%11.7
  3. TEDavid Njoku5-51 on 7 tgt21%8.9
  4. TEHarold Fannin Jr.4-49 on 6 tgt18%8.4
  5. WRJerry Jeudy4-45 on 8 tgt8%6.9
NEPatriots
  1. QBDrake Maye201 pass yd · 1.9 TD · 0.3 INT · 30 rush yd20%19.7
  2. WRStefon Diggs5-64 on 6 tgt10%9.5
  3. RBRhamondre Stevenson11 car · 34 yd   1-8 rec48%8.7
  4. TEHunter Henry3-37 on 5 tgt38%8.1
  5. WRKayshon Boutte2-36 on 3 tgt31%6.9
SF@HOUHOU −4.6O/U 38.4SF 17–22 HOU
SF 37%HOU 63%
SF49ers
  1. QBMac Jones270 pass yd · 0.6 TD · 1.3 INT · 12 rush yd6%13.4
  2. RBChristian McCaffrey18 car · 59 yd   7-62 rec52%20.1
  3. WRRicky Pearsall5-73 on 8 tgt14%10.8
  4. WRKendrick Bourne4-64 on 7 tgt8%9.0
  5. TEJake Tonges5-39 on 7 tgt31%8.4
HOUTexans
  1. QBC.J. Stroud213 pass yd · 1.8 TD · 0.7 INT · 16 rush yd6%16.9
  2. WRNico Collins5-66 on 8 tgt35%11.6
  3. RBWoody Marks11 car · 37 yd   2-14 rec42%9.5
  4. TEDalton Schultz5-44 on 7 tgt13%7.8
  5. RBNick Chubb10 car · 41 yd   2-7 rec27%7.6