NFL Week 16 2025 – Model Preview

Read this first. These are model projections, not guarantees. It’s the season opener, so the model is seeded from 2025 usage + 2026 rosters (via Efficiency+ (HFA, recency, regression), 2025 in-season (through wk15)) — the least reliable week of the year: rookies have no data and roles are unsettled. Use it as a starting point for start/sit calls, not gospel.

Top Fantasy Plays

projected half-PPR points · TD% = anytime

Top QB

  1. QBJosh Allen191 pass yd · 2.5 TD · 1.0 INT · 42 rush yd66%27.2
  2. QBJacoby Brissett328 pass yd · 2.6 TD · 1.2 INT · 13 rush yd8%24.2
  3. QBJoe Burrow295 pass yd · 2.2 TD · 1.1 INT5%20.7
  4. QBTrevor Lawrence205 pass yd · 2.1 TD · 0.6 INT · 23 rush yd30%20.4
  5. QBJalen Hurts224 pass yd · 1.5 TD · 0.7 INT · 28 rush yd43%20.4
  6. QBBryce Young260 pass yd · 1.9 TD · 0.6 INT · 20 rush yd9%20.1
  7. QBDak Prescott291 pass yd · 1.7 TD · 1.0 INT18%19.6
  8. QBJared Goff270 pass yd · 2.1 TD · 0.5 INT4%19.3

Top RB

  1. RBJahmyr Gibbs15 car · 83 yd   6-48 rec78%24.9
  2. RBBijan Robinson20 car · 108 yd   4-39 rec62%22.7
  3. RBDe'Von Achane17 car · 123 yd   3-28 rec53%20.9
  4. RBJames Cook24 car · 102 yd   2-18 rec70%20.3
  5. RBChristian McCaffrey20 car · 68 yd   4-24 rec77%19.8
  6. RBTreVeyon Henderson16 car · 80 yd   3-22 rec66%18.4
  7. RBTravis Etienne16 car · 57 yd   2-18 rec73%16.1
  8. RBChase Brown14 car · 69 yd   6-37 rec34%15.9

Top WR

  1. WRMichael Wilson9-112 on 14 tgt50%19.7
  2. WRJaxon Smith-Njigba6-91 on 9 tgt56%17.4
  3. WRMike Evans7-117 on 12 tgt28%17.0
  4. WRA.J. Brown6-88 on 9 tgt52%16.4
  5. WRAmon-Ra St. Brown6-83 on 10 tgt52%15.7
  6. WRPuka Nacua6-88 on 10 tgt39%15.2
  7. WRJameson Williams5-79 on 8 tgt51%14.8
  8. WRWan'Dale Robinson6-81 on 11 tgt40%14.4

Top TE

  1. TETrey McBride8-88 on 10 tgt57%18.0
  2. TEGeorge Kittle6-71 on 7 tgt50%14.2
  3. TEKyle Pitts6-74 on 8 tgt47%14.1
  4. TEHarold Fannin Jr.5-62 on 9 tgt34%11.4
  5. TEBrock Bowers6-53 on 8 tgt35%10.9
  6. TEColby Parkinson4-39 on 5 tgt54%10.4
  7. TETravis Kelce5-50 on 7 tgt35%10.2
  8. TEHunter Henry4-55 on 6 tgt25%9.4

TD Magnets

highest anytime-touchdown probability
  1. Jahmyr GibbsRBDET v PIT78%
  2. Christian McCaffreyRBSF v IND77%
  3. Travis EtienneRBJAX v DEN73%
  4. James CookRBBUF v CLE70%
  5. TreVeyon HendersonRBNE v BAL66%
  6. Kyren WilliamsRBLA v SEA63%
  7. Bijan RobinsonRBATL v ARI62%
  8. RJ HarveyRBDEN v JAX60%

The Slate

tap any game to expand the full report
PIT@DETDET −3.8O/U 55.0PIT 26–29 DET
PIT 39%DET 61%
🏟 dome
PITSteelers
  1. QBAaron Rodgers202 pass yd · 1.5 TD · 0.2 INT10%14.8
  2. RBKenny Gainwell8 car · 38 yd   5-34 rec47%13.7
  3. WRDK Metcalf4-66 on 8 tgt28%11.0
  4. RBJaylen Warren11 car · 40 yd   2-12 rec44%9.7
  5. TEPat Freiermuth2-23 on 3 tgt22%4.8
DETLions
  1. QBJared Goff270 pass yd · 2.1 TD · 0.5 INT4%19.3
  2. RBJahmyr Gibbs15 car · 83 yd   6-48 rec78%24.9
  3. WRAmon-Ra St. Brown6-83 on 10 tgt52%15.7
  4. WRJameson Williams5-79 on 8 tgt51%14.8
  5. RBDavid Montgomery7 car · 34 yd   1-10 rec49%9.0
LAC@DALLAC −2.1O/U 54.4LAC 28–26 DAL
LAC 56%DAL 44%
LACChargers
  1. QBJustin Herbert167 pass yd · 1.5 TD · 0.7 INT · 22 rush yd11%14.9
  2. RBKimani Vidal14 car · 61 yd   1-16 rec36%11.0
  3. RBOmarion Hampton14 car · 65 yd   1-10 rec33%10.5
  4. RBJaret Patterson11 car · 54 yd   0-0 rec53%10.0
  5. WRKeenan Allen4-44 on 5 tgt13%7.2
DALCowboys
  1. QBDak Prescott291 pass yd · 1.7 TD · 1.0 INT18%19.6
  2. WRCeeDee Lamb5-80 on 9 tgt39%13.6
  3. RBJavonte Williams18 car · 80 yd   2-9 rec47%13.6
  4. WRGeorge Pickens6-76 on 10 tgt39%13.6
  5. TEJake Ferguson4-41 on 6 tgt26%8.1
ATL@ARIATL −0.7O/U 51.0ATL 26–25 ARI
ATL 52%ARI 48%
ATLFalcons
  1. QBKirk Cousins207 pass yd · 1.5 TD · 0.5 INT3%14.1
  2. RBBijan Robinson20 car · 108 yd   4-39 rec62%22.7
  3. TEKyle Pitts6-74 on 8 tgt47%14.1
  4. WRDrake London6-90 on 9 tgt28%14.0
  5. RBTyler Allgeier7 car · 30 yd   1-10 rec35%7.3
ARICardinals
  1. QBJacoby Brissett328 pass yd · 2.6 TD · 1.2 INT · 13 rush yd8%24.2
  2. WRMichael Wilson9-112 on 14 tgt50%19.7
  3. TETrey McBride8-88 on 10 tgt57%18.0
  4. WRGreg Dortch4-47 on 6 tgt44%10.4
  5. WRMarvin Harrison Jr.5-62 on 7 tgt24%10.3
LA@SEASEA −0.3O/U 49.9LA 25–25 SEA
LA 49%SEA 51%
LARams
  1. QBMatthew Stafford216 pass yd · 2.0 TD · 0.8 INT2%16.2
  2. WRPuka Nacua6-88 on 10 tgt39%15.2
  3. RBKyren Williams13 car · 57 yd   1-7 rec63%12.8
  4. WRDavante Adams4-38 on 7 tgt59%11.0
  5. TEColby Parkinson4-39 on 5 tgt54%10.4
SEASeahawks
  1. QBSam Darnold218 pass yd · 1.1 TD · 1.1 INT6%13.1
  2. WRJaxon Smith-Njigba6-91 on 9 tgt56%17.4
  3. RBKenneth Walker III12 car · 42 yd   2-16 rec28%8.9
  4. RBZach Charbonnet9 car · 35 yd   1-6 rec36%7.2
  5. WRCooper Kupp3-33 on 5 tgt22%6.3
BUF@CLEBUF −9.8O/U 48.7BUF 29–19 CLE
BUF 77%CLE 23%
BUFBills
  1. QBJosh Allen191 pass yd · 2.5 TD · 1.0 INT · 42 rush yd66%27.2
  2. RBJames Cook24 car · 102 yd   2-18 rec70%20.3
  3. TEDawson Knox3-33 on 4 tgt33%7.1
  4. TEDalton Kincaid3-31 on 4 tgt34%7.0
  5. WRKhalil Shakir3-35 on 4 tgt23%6.5
CLEBrowns
  1. QBShedeur Sanders202 pass yd · 0.9 TD · 1.4 INT · 11 rush yd11%12.1
  2. TEHarold Fannin Jr.5-62 on 9 tgt34%11.4
  3. RBQuinshon Judkins14 car · 54 yd   2-12 rec30%9.7
  4. WRJerry Jeudy3-39 on 5 tgt18%6.6
  5. RBDylan Sampson3 car · 16 yd   2-18 rec18%5.6
CIN@MIAMIA −6.8O/U 48.7CIN 21–28 MIA
CIN 31%MIA 69%
CINBengals
  1. QBJoe Burrow295 pass yd · 2.2 TD · 1.1 INT5%20.7
  2. RBChase Brown14 car · 69 yd   6-37 rec34%15.9
  3. WRTee Higgins6-65 on 9 tgt54%13.9
  4. WRJa'Marr Chase7-85 on 13 tgt14%13.2
  5. TEMike Gesicki4-41 on 5 tgt22%7.4
MIADolphins
  1. QBTua Tagovailoa183 pass yd · 1.1 TD · 0.5 INT6%12.2
  2. RBDe'Von Achane17 car · 123 yd   3-28 rec53%20.9
  3. TEDarren Waller3-43 on 4 tgt42%9.3
  4. WRJaylen Waddle3-44 on 6 tgt28%8.1
  5. RBJaylen Wright8 car · 42 yd   1-6 rec30%7.3
SF@INDSF −0.7O/U 48.5SF 25–24 IND
SF 52%IND 48%
SF49ers
  1. QBBrock Purdy211 pass yd · 1.6 TD · 0.8 INT · 16 rush yd21%17.2
  2. RBChristian McCaffrey20 car · 68 yd   4-24 rec77%19.8
  3. TEGeorge Kittle6-71 on 7 tgt50%14.2
  4. WRJauan Jennings4-45 on 6 tgt55%11.2
  5. WRRicky Pearsall3-30 on 4 tgt11%5.1
INDColts
  1. QBRiley Leonard173 pass yd · 0.8 TD · 0.7 INT19%11.6
  2. RBJonathan Taylor20 car · 80 yd   2-14 rec34%13.1
  3. WRMichael Pittman5-45 on 7 tgt27%8.8
  4. WRAlec Pierce3-43 on 4 tgt22%7.1
  5. TETyler Warren4-30 on 6 tgt27%6.9
JAX@DENJAX −2.8O/U 47.9JAX 25–23 DEN
JAX 58%DEN 42%
JAXJaguars
  1. QBTrevor Lawrence205 pass yd · 2.1 TD · 0.6 INT · 23 rush yd30%20.4
  2. RBTravis Etienne16 car · 57 yd   2-18 rec73%16.1
  3. WRJakobi Meyers4-50 on 7 tgt45%11.1
  4. WRBrian Thomas Jr.3-42 on 5 tgt29%7.9
  5. TEBrenton Strange3-40 on 4 tgt24%7.1
DENBroncos
  1. QBBo Nix260 pass yd · 1.3 TD · 0.5 INT · 14 rush yd19%17.9
  2. RBRJ Harvey14 car · 45 yd   3-19 rec60%13.3
  3. WRCourtland Sutton5-62 on 9 tgt39%11.9
  4. WRTroy Franklin4-40 on 5 tgt24%7.5
  5. WRPat Bryant4-42 on 6 tgt13%6.9
GB@CHICHI −1.2O/U 46.5GB 23–24 CHI
GB 46%CHI 54%
GBPackers
  1. QBJordan Love224 pass yd · 2.3 TD · 0.8 INT · 12 rush yd7%19.0
  2. WRChristian Watson4-64 on 6 tgt55%13.3
  3. RBJosh Jacobs14 car · 74 yd   1-8 rec45%12.5
  4. WRJayden Reed4-47 on 5 tgt17%8.2
  5. RBEmanuel Wilson9 car · 40 yd   0-3 rec41%7.7
CHIBears
  1. QBCaleb Williams183 pass yd · 1.6 TD · 0.4 INT · 18 rush yd8%15.7
  2. RBD'Andre Swift16 car · 69 yd   1-8 rec49%12.4
  3. RBKyle Monangai14 car · 54 yd   1-5 rec48%10.1
  4. WRDJ Moore3-34 on 4 tgt46%8.7
  5. WRLuther Burden III4-49 on 6 tgt12%7.9
MIN@NYGMIN −3.2O/U 46.0MIN 25–21 NYG
MIN 59%NYG 41%
MINVikings
  1. QBMax Brosmer166 pass yd · 0.8 TD · 1.8 INT5%8.7
  2. RBAaron Jones12 car · 58 yd   3-17 rec16%9.8
  3. RBJordan Mason9 car · 51 yd   0-1 rec34%7.8
  4. WRJordan Addison3-40 on 5 tgt21%6.9
  5. TET.J. Hockenson4-34 on 5 tgt22%6.7
NYGGiants
  1. QBJaxson Dart205 pass yd · 1.2 TD · 0.5 INT · 35 rush yd14%16.8
  2. WRWan'Dale Robinson6-81 on 11 tgt40%14.4
  3. RBTyrone Tracy Jr.15 car · 58 yd   3-22 rec37%12.0
  4. RBDevin Singletary11 car · 40 yd   1-6 rec46%8.8
  5. WRDarius Slayton3-44 on 5 tgt25%7.5
NE@BALNE −0.7O/U 44.7NE 23–22 BAL
NE 52%BAL 48%
NEPatriots
  1. QBDrake Maye234 pass yd · 0.9 TD · 0.4 INT · 20 rush yd32%16.7
  2. RBTreVeyon Henderson16 car · 80 yd   3-22 rec66%18.4
  3. TEHunter Henry4-55 on 6 tgt25%9.4
  4. RBRhamondre Stevenson8 car · 32 yd   2-19 rec16%7.4
  5. WRStefon Diggs4-41 on 6 tgt11%6.6
BALRavens
  1. QBLamar Jackson185 pass yd · 0.8 TD · 0.8 INT · 23 rush yd19%13.5
  2. RBDerrick Henry17 car · 71 yd   1-10 rec53%13.3
  3. WRZay Flowers4-63 on 7 tgt23%10.3
  4. TEIsaiah Likely3-35 on 4 tgt22%6.6
  5. RBKeaton Mitchell5 car · 27 yd   1-8 rec19%5.4
TB@CARCAR −0.6O/U 43.5TB 21–22 CAR
TB 48%CAR 52%
TBBuccaneers
  1. QBBaker Mayfield176 pass yd · 1.0 TD · 1.2 INT · 23 rush yd18%13.2
  2. WRMike Evans7-117 on 12 tgt28%17.0
  3. RBBucky Irving16 car · 68 yd   2-15 rec42%12.5
  4. RBSean Tucker9 car · 41 yd   1-5 rec49%8.9
  5. WRChris Godwin Jr.3-44 on 6 tgt22%7.6
CARPanthers
  1. QBBryce Young260 pass yd · 1.9 TD · 0.6 INT · 20 rush yd9%20.1
  2. RBRico Dowdle15 car · 52 yd   3-30 rec31%11.9
  3. WRTetairoa McMillan3-53 on 6 tgt52%11.3
  4. RBChuba Hubbard8 car · 36 yd   2-20 rec22%8.2
  5. WRJalen Coker3-44 on 4 tgt31%8.2
KC@TENKC −7.7O/U 42.7KC 25–18 TEN
KC 72%TEN 28%
KCChiefs
  1. QBPatrick Mahomes260 pass yd · 1.4 TD · 0.8 INT · 22 rush yd18%18.3
  2. WRRashee Rice7-82 on 10 tgt36%14.3
  3. RBKareem Hunt17 car · 62 yd   1-12 rec54%12.6
  4. TETravis Kelce5-50 on 7 tgt35%10.2
  5. WRXavier Worthy3-50 on 5 tgt11%7.6
TENTitans
  1. QBCam Ward206 pass yd · 0.9 TD · 0.3 INT · 14 rush yd12%13.5
  2. RBTony Pollard12 car · 58 yd   2-12 rec35%10.6
  3. TEGunnar Helm5-42 on 5 tgt18%7.7
  4. WRChimere Dike4-30 on 6 tgt26%6.9
  5. TEChig Okonkwo4-40 on 4 tgt8%6.4
PHI@WASPHI −7.9O/U 41.7PHI 25–17 WAS
PHI 72%WAS 28%
PHIEagles
  1. QBJalen Hurts224 pass yd · 1.5 TD · 0.7 INT · 28 rush yd43%20.4
  2. WRA.J. Brown6-88 on 9 tgt52%16.4
  3. RBSaquon Barkley20 car · 86 yd   2-19 rec45%15.0
  4. TEDallas Goedert4-48 on 5 tgt32%8.9
  5. WRDeVonta Smith4-51 on 6 tgt10%7.6
WASCommanders
  1. QBMarcus Mariota184 pass yd · 0.7 TD · 0.8 INT · 35 rush yd8%13.3
  2. WRTerry McLaurin4-64 on 9 tgt37%11.4
  3. WRDeebo Samuel Sr.4-50 on 7 tgt21%8.8
  4. TEZach Ertz5-47 on 8 tgt13%8.1
  5. RBChris Rodriguez Jr.11 car · 49 yd   0-5 rec22%7.1
NYJ@NONO −5.2O/U 41.4NYJ 18–23 NO
NYJ 35%NO 65%
🏟 dome
NYJJets
  1. QBBrady Cook199 pass yd · 0.8 TD · 1.9 INT · 17 rush yd9%11.6
  2. WRAdonai Mitchell4-55 on 8 tgt29%9.8
  3. WRJohn Metchie III4-44 on 6 tgt28%8.7
  4. RBBreece Hall14 car · 45 yd   2-17 rec21%8.6
  5. TEMason Taylor4-35 on 6 tgt10%6.1
NOSaints
  1. QBTyler Shough217 pass yd · 1.1 TD · 0.7 INT · 31 rush yd37%18.0
  2. WRChris Olave5-60 on 8 tgt38%11.4
  3. RBDevin Neal13 car · 47 yd   2-21 rec44%11.3
  4. WRDevaughn Vele4-56 on 6 tgt24%9.3
  5. TEJuwan Johnson4-35 on 6 tgt12%6.4
LV@HOUHOU −16.9O/U 38.7LV 11–28 HOU
LV 10%HOU 90%
LVRaiders
  1. QBGeno Smith208 pass yd · 0.8 TD · 0.8 INT5%12.1
  2. TEBrock Bowers6-53 on 8 tgt35%10.9
  3. RBAshton Jeanty10 car · 26 yd   6-31 rec20%9.8
  4. WRTre Tucker3-30 on 6 tgt16%5.5
  5. WRTyler Lockett2-28 on 4 tgt6%4.4
HOUTexans
  1. QBDavis Mills204 pass yd · 1.9 TD · 0.2 INT9%16.8
  2. WRNico Collins5-75 on 6 tgt46%13.6
  3. RBJawhar Jordan17 car · 85 yd   2-10 rec37%13.1
  4. RBWoody Marks20 car · 63 yd   1-6 rec23%9.0
  5. TEDalton Schultz4-41 on 6 tgt25%8.0