NFL Week 18 2025 – Model Preview

Read this first. These are model projections, not guarantees. It’s the season opener, so the model is seeded from 2025 usage + 2026 rosters (via Efficiency+ (HFA, recency, regression), 2025 in-season (through wk17)) — the least reliable week of the year: rookies have no data and roles are unsettled. Use it as a starting point for start/sit calls, not gospel.

Top Fantasy Plays

projected half-PPR points · TD% = anytime

Top QB

  1. QBTrevor Lawrence266 pass yd · 3.3 TD · 0.2 INT · 26 rush yd57%31.4
  2. QBDrake Maye241 pass yd · 2.9 TD · 0.4 INT · 25 rush yd42%26.5
  3. QBJared Goff323 pass yd · 2.9 TD · 0.6 INT5%24.8
  4. QBJosh Allen175 pass yd · 2.0 TD · 0.2 INT · 40 rush yd62%24.7
  5. QBBrock Purdy228 pass yd · 2.5 TD · 0.7 INT · 20 rush yd43%23.9
  6. QBMatthew Stafford286 pass yd · 3.1 TD · 0.9 INT4%23.5
  7. QBCaleb Williams232 pass yd · 2.6 TD · 0.5 INT · 18 rush yd10%21.8
  8. QBDak Prescott316 pass yd · 1.9 TD · 0.5 INT · 11 rush yd8%21.2

Top RB

  1. RBBijan Robinson20 car · 107 yd   6-53 rec60%24.3
  2. RBJames Cook25 car · 115 yd   2-18 rec76%22.9
  3. RBChase Brown16 car · 67 yd   4-27 rec75%19.8
  4. RBDerrick Henry20 car · 112 yd   0-4 rec73%19.8
  5. RBKyren Williams18 car · 96 yd   2-15 rec71%19.5
  6. RBChristian McCaffrey21 car · 75 yd   4-23 rec70%19.0
  7. RBD'Andre Swift15 car · 79 yd   2-12 rec73%17.7
  8. RBSaquon Barkley22 car · 110 yd   1-8 rec58%17.4

Top WR

  1. WRPuka Nacua7-115 on 10 tgt69%22.2
  2. WRJameson Williams6-104 on 8 tgt40%16.5
  3. WRChris Olave6-85 on 10 tgt56%16.4
  4. WRMichael Wilson6-80 on 10 tgt56%15.9
  5. WRJaxon Smith-Njigba7-81 on 9 tgt50%15.7
  6. WRAmon-Ra St. Brown6-91 on 10 tgt40%15.4
  7. WRA.J. Brown6-84 on 8 tgt45%15.0
  8. WRJa'Marr Chase7-80 on 11 tgt38%14.3

Top TE

  1. TETrey McBride8-66 on 11 tgt51%15.1
  2. TEGeorge Kittle6-81 on 8 tgt48%15.1
  3. TEKyle Pitts6-73 on 8 tgt49%14.5
  4. TEHarold Fannin Jr.5-69 on 8 tgt50%13.9
  5. TEDallas Goedert4-47 on 5 tgt50%10.9
  6. TEBrock Bowers5-48 on 6 tgt42%10.7
  7. TEColby Parkinson4-41 on 5 tgt47%9.8
  8. TEColston Loveland4-45 on 6 tgt40%9.5

TD Magnets

highest anytime-touchdown probability
  1. James CookRBBUF v NYJ76%
  2. Chase BrownRBCIN v CLE75%
  3. Blake CorumRBLA v ARI73%
  4. Derrick HenryRBBAL v PIT73%
  5. D'Andre SwiftRBCHI v DET73%
  6. Kyren WilliamsRBLA v ARI71%
  7. Travis EtienneRBJAX v TEN71%
  8. Christian McCaffreyRBSF v SEA70%

The Slate

tap any game to expand the full report
DAL@NYGNYG −2.5O/U 57.7DAL 28–30 NYG
DAL 43%NYG 57%
DALCowboys
  1. QBDak Prescott316 pass yd · 1.9 TD · 0.5 INT · 11 rush yd8%21.2
  2. WRCeeDee Lamb6-90 on 9 tgt28%14.0
  3. RBJavonte Williams14 car · 71 yd   2-10 rec57%14.0
  4. WRGeorge Pickens5-77 on 9 tgt28%12.2
  5. WRRyan Flournoy4-53 on 6 tgt41%10.6
NYGGiants
  1. QBJaxson Dart181 pass yd · 1.3 TD · 0.4 INT · 31 rush yd43%18.6
  2. WRWan'Dale Robinson7-71 on 9 tgt34%13.1
  3. RBTyrone Tracy Jr.14 car · 67 yd   2-12 rec46%12.5
  4. RBDevin Singletary9 car · 47 yd   2-16 rec48%11.2
  5. WRDarius Slayton3-41 on 4 tgt27%7.3
ARI@LALA −18.8O/U 57.3ARI 19–38 LA
ARI 8%LA 92%
🏟 dome
ARICardinals
  1. QBJacoby Brissett273 pass yd · 1.8 TD · 1.1 INT5%18.2
  2. WRMichael Wilson6-80 on 10 tgt56%15.9
  3. TETrey McBride8-66 on 11 tgt51%15.1
  4. RBMichael Carter7 car · 29 yd   3-25 rec11%7.6
  5. RBBam Knight5 car · 22 yd   2-19 rec23%6.8
LARams
  1. QBMatthew Stafford286 pass yd · 3.1 TD · 0.9 INT4%23.5
  2. WRPuka Nacua7-115 on 10 tgt69%22.2
  3. RBKyren Williams18 car · 96 yd   2-15 rec71%19.5
  4. RBBlake Corum12 car · 78 yd   0-3 rec73%16.2
  5. WRDavante Adams4-47 on 6 tgt48%10.5
DET@CHICHI −3.3O/U 56.8DET 27–30 CHI
DET 40%CHI 60%
DETLions
  1. QBJared Goff323 pass yd · 2.9 TD · 0.6 INT5%24.8
  2. WRJameson Williams6-104 on 8 tgt40%16.5
  3. RBJahmyr Gibbs13 car · 46 yd   6-37 rec59%16.4
  4. WRAmon-Ra St. Brown6-91 on 10 tgt40%15.4
  5. WRIsaac TeSlaa2-35 on 4 tgt46%8.3
CHIBears
  1. QBCaleb Williams232 pass yd · 2.6 TD · 0.5 INT · 18 rush yd10%21.8
  2. RBD'Andre Swift15 car · 79 yd   2-12 rec73%17.7
  3. WRLuther Burden III5-72 on 7 tgt32%12.1
  4. RBKyle Monangai13 car · 63 yd   2-11 rec34%10.7
  5. TEColston Loveland4-45 on 6 tgt40%9.5
SEA@SFSEA −2.1O/U 53.2SEA 28–26 SF
SEA 56%SF 44%
SEASeahawks
  1. QBSam Darnold207 pass yd · 1.6 TD · 0.6 INT8%15.7
  2. WRJaxon Smith-Njigba7-81 on 9 tgt50%15.7
  3. RBZach Charbonnet12 car · 55 yd   2-10 rec60%12.9
  4. RBKenneth Walker III12 car · 53 yd   2-14 rec31%10.0
  5. TEAJ Barner3-32 on 5 tgt36%7.6
SF49ers
  1. QBBrock Purdy228 pass yd · 2.5 TD · 0.7 INT · 20 rush yd43%23.9
  2. RBChristian McCaffrey21 car · 75 yd   4-23 rec70%19.0
  3. TEGeorge Kittle6-81 on 8 tgt48%15.1
  4. WRJauan Jennings3-37 on 5 tgt62%11.1
  5. TEJake Tonges4-40 on 6 tgt37%8.8
NYJ@BUFBUF −17.1O/U 50.9NYJ 17–34 BUF
NYJ 10%BUF 90%
NYJJets
  1. QBBrady Cook190 pass yd · 0.4 TD · 2.2 INT · 11 rush yd5%8.3
  2. WRAdonai Mitchell5-57 on 9 tgt29%10.3
  3. RBBreece Hall13 car · 60 yd   2-11 rec26%9.8
  4. TEMason Taylor4-40 on 7 tgt15%6.9
  5. WRJohn Metchie III4-34 on 6 tgt8%5.9
BUFBills
  1. QBJosh Allen175 pass yd · 2.0 TD · 0.2 INT · 40 rush yd62%24.7
  2. RBJames Cook25 car · 115 yd   2-18 rec76%22.9
  3. TEDawson Knox3-32 on 4 tgt35%7.3
  4. WRKhalil Shakir3-32 on 4 tgt24%6.3
  5. RBTy Johnson4 car · 16 yd   2-18 rec26%6.2
TEN@JAXJAX −14.3O/U 49.4TEN 18–32 JAX
TEN 14%JAX 86%
TENTitans
  1. QBCam Ward195 pass yd · 1.3 TD · 0.4 INT4%13.5
  2. RBTony Pollard15 car · 73 yd   1-7 rec34%11.0
  3. TEChig Okonkwo4-40 on 6 tgt27%8.1
  4. RBTyjae Spears5 car · 18 yd   3-24 rec17%6.9
  5. WRChimere Dike4-31 on 6 tgt27%6.9
JAXJaguars
  1. QBTrevor Lawrence266 pass yd · 3.3 TD · 0.2 INT · 26 rush yd57%31.4
  2. RBTravis Etienne18 car · 64 yd   2-20 rec71%16.7
  3. WRJakobi Meyers5-63 on 7 tgt42%12.5
  4. WRParker Washington4-78 on 6 tgt30%12.3
  5. WRBrian Thomas Jr.3-49 on 5 tgt25%8.3
MIA@NENE −10.9O/U 48.0MIA 19–29 NE
MIA 21%NE 79%
MIADolphins
  1. QBQuinn Ewers221 pass yd · 1.0 TD · 0.8 INT · 11 rush yd8%13.8
  2. RBDe'Von Achane13 car · 67 yd   3-19 rec36%12.8
  3. WRJaylen Waddle4-42 on 6 tgt19%7.4
  4. TEDarren Waller3-36 on 5 tgt27%7.1
  5. TEGreg Dulcich3-36 on 4 tgt16%6.2
NEPatriots
  1. QBDrake Maye241 pass yd · 2.9 TD · 0.4 INT · 25 rush yd42%26.5
  2. RBTreVeyon Henderson14 car · 83 yd   2-11 rec53%14.8
  3. RBRhamondre Stevenson10 car · 52 yd   3-29 rec57%14.6
  4. WRStefon Diggs5-58 on 5 tgt27%9.9
  5. TEHunter Henry3-39 on 4 tgt38%8.4
CLE@CINCIN −5.9O/U 45.8CLE 20–26 CIN
CLE 33%CIN 67%
CLEBrowns
  1. QBShedeur Sanders253 pass yd · 1.4 TD · 1.8 INT · 19 rush yd14%16.7
  2. TEHarold Fannin Jr.5-69 on 8 tgt50%13.9
  3. RBQuinshon Judkins13 car · 50 yd   3-31 rec15%10.7
  4. WRJerry Jeudy3-43 on 5 tgt18%7.1
  5. RBDylan Sampson5 car · 24 yd   3-24 rec13%7.0
CINBengals
  1. QBJoe Burrow239 pass yd · 2.5 TD · 0.8 INT6%19.8
  2. RBChase Brown16 car · 67 yd   4-27 rec75%19.8
  3. WRJa'Marr Chase7-80 on 11 tgt38%14.3
  4. WRTee Higgins4-52 on 6 tgt53%11.6
  5. RBSamaje Perine10 car · 33 yd   1-8 rec39%7.7
IND@HOUHOU −7.7O/U 44.9IND 19–26 HOU
IND 28%HOU 72%
INDColts
  1. QBPhilip Rivers188 pass yd · 1.0 TD · 1.2 INT2%10.6
  2. RBJonathan Taylor18 car · 58 yd   3-22 rec39%12.4
  3. WRAlec Pierce3-45 on 5 tgt33%8.3
  4. WRJosh Downs3-39 on 6 tgt19%6.8
  5. TETyler Warren4-31 on 6 tgt21%6.5
HOUTexans
  1. QBC.J. Stroud214 pass yd · 1.2 TD · 0.6 INT9%14.3
  2. WRNico Collins4-70 on 6 tgt35%11.6
  3. RBJawhar Jordan14 car · 62 yd   2-10 rec22%9.4
  4. RBWoody Marks20 car · 64 yd   1-6 rec26%9.4
  5. TEDalton Schultz4-43 on 6 tgt34%9.0
BAL@PITBAL −1.1O/U 44.1BAL 23–22 PIT
BAL 53%PIT 47%
BALRavens
  1. QBLamar Jackson171 pass yd · 0.8 TD · 0.7 INT · 22 rush yd21%12.9
  2. RBDerrick Henry20 car · 112 yd   0-4 rec73%19.8
  3. WRZay Flowers5-59 on 7 tgt34%10.9
  4. TEIsaiah Likely3-34 on 4 tgt21%6.2
  5. RBKeaton Mitchell7 car · 36 yd   1-6 rec22%6.1
PITSteelers
  1. QBAaron Rodgers219 pass yd · 0.7 TD · 0.1 INT9%12.6
  2. RBKenny Gainwell8 car · 34 yd   5-39 rec33%12.0
  3. RBJaylen Warren11 car · 52 yd   2-16 rec47%11.6
  4. WRDK Metcalf4-66 on 7 tgt24%10.5
  5. WRScott Miller3-33 on 5 tgt13%5.7
LAC@DENDEN −1.4O/U 42.3LAC 20–22 DEN
LAC 46%DEN 54%
LACChargers
  1. QBJustin Herbert186 pass yd · 1.0 TD · 0.6 INT · 29 rush yd19%15.0
  2. RBOmarion Hampton14 car · 51 yd   2-15 rec45%11.5
  3. WRQuentin Johnston3-43 on 5 tgt30%8.0
  4. RBKimani Vidal14 car · 48 yd   1-10 rec26%8.0
  5. WRLadd McConkey2-27 on 4 tgt26%5.8
DENBroncos
  1. QBBo Nix253 pass yd · 1.1 TD · 0.8 INT · 20 rush yd28%17.8
  2. RBRJ Harvey14 car · 57 yd   3-23 rec65%15.8
  3. WRCourtland Sutton5-67 on 10 tgt42%12.6
  4. WRPat Bryant4-40 on 6 tgt12%6.6
  5. WRTroy Franklin3-34 on 4 tgt18%6.3
NO@ATLATL −0.1O/U 42.0NO 21–21 ATL
NO 50%ATL 50%
NOSaints
  1. QBTyler Shough259 pass yd · 1.3 TD · 0.6 INT · 24 rush yd28%19.4
  2. WRChris Olave6-85 on 10 tgt56%16.4
  3. RBDevin Neal13 car · 54 yd   1-10 rec45%10.6
  4. WRDevaughn Vele5-61 on 6 tgt26%10.2
  5. TEJuwan Johnson4-54 on 6 tgt10%8.3
ATLFalcons
  1. QBKirk Cousins214 pass yd · 1.5 TD · 0.6 INT9%14.9
  2. RBBijan Robinson20 car · 107 yd   6-53 rec60%24.3
  3. TEKyle Pitts6-73 on 8 tgt49%14.5
  4. RBTyler Allgeier9 car · 34 yd   1-8 rec22%6.1
  5. WRDavid Sills2-30 on 5 tgt18%5.4
WAS@PHIPHI −11.3O/U 41.7WAS 15–26 PHI
WAS 20%PHI 80%
WASCommanders
  1. QBMarcus Mariota162 pass yd · 0.5 TD · 0.5 INT · 26 rush yd7%11.0
  2. WRTerry McLaurin4-62 on 8 tgt26%10.1
  3. TEZach Ertz5-50 on 8 tgt15%8.7
  4. RBChris Rodriguez Jr.10 car · 43 yd   0-5 rec30%7.2
  5. WRDeebo Samuel Sr.3-46 on 6 tgt8%7.0
PHIEagles
  1. QBJalen Hurts193 pass yd · 1.9 TD · 0.7 INT · 24 rush yd10%17.8
  2. RBSaquon Barkley22 car · 110 yd   1-8 rec58%17.4
  3. WRA.J. Brown6-84 on 8 tgt45%15.0
  4. TEDallas Goedert4-47 on 5 tgt50%10.9
  5. WRDeVonta Smith4-44 on 6 tgt22%7.7
CAR@TBTB −2.7O/U 41.4CAR 19–22 TB
CAR 42%TB 58%
CARPanthers
  1. QBBryce Young177 pass yd · 1.4 TD · 0.3 INT · 29 rush yd21%16.7
  2. RBRico Dowdle13 car · 50 yd   3-20 rec26%10.3
  3. WRJalen Coker3-42 on 4 tgt28%7.6
  4. WRTetairoa McMillan3-38 on 5 tgt29%7.2
  5. RBChuba Hubbard8 car · 37 yd   2-15 rec18%7.1
TBBuccaneers
  1. QBBaker Mayfield214 pass yd · 1.1 TD · 1.1 INT · 23 rush yd8%14.7
  2. WRMike Evans5-65 on 9 tgt43%12.4
  3. RBBucky Irving16 car · 64 yd   2-13 rec34%11.2
  4. WRChris Godwin Jr.4-54 on 6 tgt30%9.7
  5. WRJalen McMillan3-44 on 4 tgt12%6.9
GB@MINMIN −2.7O/U 40.5GB 19–22 MIN
GB 42%MIN 58%
🏟 dome
GBPackers
  1. QBJordan Love203 pass yd · 1.3 TD · 0.6 INT · 11 rush yd6%14.1
  2. WRChristian Watson4-64 on 6 tgt43%11.7
  3. RBJosh Jacobs12 car · 49 yd   2-8 rec35%9.0
  4. WRRomeo Doubs3-37 on 4 tgt23%6.6
  5. WRJayden Reed3-40 on 4 tgt10%6.6
MINVikings
  1. QBJ.J. McCarthy142 pass yd · 1.3 TD · 0.5 INT · 18 rush yd32%14.6
  2. RBAaron Jones15 car · 52 yd   2-13 rec26%9.5
  3. WRJustin Jefferson4-36 on 6 tgt9%5.9
  4. WRJordan Addison3-37 on 4 tgt10%5.8
  5. TET.J. Hockenson3-24 on 4 tgt20%5.2
KC@LVKC −7.4O/U 37.4KC 22–15 LV
KC 71%LV 29%
🏟 dome
KCChiefs
  1. QBPatrick Mahomes191 pass yd · 1.2 TD · 0.9 INT · 25 rush yd22%15.8
  2. WRRashee Rice6-63 on 10 tgt44%13.2
  3. TETravis Kelce4-33 on 6 tgt20%6.6
  4. RBKareem Hunt9 car · 32 yd   1-5 rec24%5.6
  5. WRXavier Worthy2-34 on 4 tgt10%5.5
LVRaiders
  1. QBGeno Smith179 pass yd · 0.9 TD · 0.8 INT3%10.3
  2. RBAshton Jeanty13 car · 49 yd   4-28 rec26%11.2
  3. TEBrock Bowers5-48 on 6 tgt42%10.7
  4. TEMichael Mayer4-38 on 5 tgt10%6.3
  5. WRTre Tucker3-30 on 5 tgt8%5.4